Postseason on their mind
In? Out? Playoff scenarios run the gamut, with fates to be determined this weekend
There is one week of high school football remaining. Several teams in Broward and Palm Beach counties already know they will be playing regional playoff football, either as a district champion or as an at-large team that can’t get knocked out of the postseason picture.
Several others will be looking at their end-of-season playoff points average, based on the system the FHSAA implemented ahead of last season that incorporates wins and losses and values strength of schedule, to determine their fate. Even for those that have already clinched, regional seeding is still on the line in Week 11.
We take a look at all the possibilities for area teams to qualify for the postseason heading into the final week of the regular season. In local regions for Class 8A and 7A, we project how each region will turn out, with likely points averages. Check back on Saturday evening ahead of the FHSAA’s official Sunday release for an update.
Region 3-8A
First, we must settle the remaining district title that’s up for grabs, District 12-8A, after Plantation, Miramar and Western split games against each other in the regular season.
The team that controls its destiny, although it won’t be easy, is Miramar – against St. Thomas Aquinas. Yes, the Patriots, after an 0-3 start, determine who wins this district. That’s because they’ve won six straight, including the one against Western last week to force this tiebreaker. A win against the Raiders is worth 53 points and would give the Patriots an average neither the Colonels nor Wildcats could catch.
Should Miramar lose against Aquinas, it is still guaranteed a playoff berth, but as a wild card. Plantation would then win the district if it wins against Douglas. Western needs a win against Cooper City and losses by both Miramar and Plantation to win this district after squandering the chance to win it outright on Friday. Regardless, it’s still “win and you’re in,” at least as an at-large team, for Plantation and Western.
Piper and Wellington, like Miramar, have already clinched playoff berths. The Bengals cannot fall out should they lose at Naples on Friday; same goes for the Wolverines against undefeated Atlantic. In fact, Piper is in good shape to move up from its current No. 8 post because each win from these teams this week bumps up their points average half a point: Chaminade-Madonna, Monarch, Coral Springs, Douglas, Miami Norland.
Stoneman Douglas is still alive, but it would take an upset win over Plantation plus help elsewhere. Seminole Ridge dug itself in a hole after last week’s loss to Jupiter. The Hawks, along with Park Vista and Taravella, can only begin to look at playoff possibilities with wins this week, a Western loss to Cooper City and a Plantation win against Douglas before several other outcomes decide who gets in.
Now for the big boys in this region. Atlantic, Deerfield Beach and Palm Beach Central are the three teams to have already clinched district titles. While Atlantic is currently the No. 1 seed, Deerfield (9-1) is most likely to end up topping this region, even assuming the Eagles beat Wellington, because six of their opponents (Chaminade-Madonna, Coral Springs, Monarch, Douglas and Georgia teams Buford and Westlake) can jump up a category to improve Deerfield’s strength of schedule with a win the final week. They only need three of them to win and two should Pahokee, the only team that can help Atlantic’s strength of schedule, lose to Glades Central.
Palm Beach Central is essentially locked into the No. 3 seed so long as the Broncos beat John I. Leonard on Friday.
Projected finish:
■ 1. Deerfield Beach 44.3
■ 2. Atlantic 43.0 or 43.5
■ 3. Palm Beach C. 41.5
■ 4. Plantation 39.2
■ 5. Piper 40.0 (or No. 6)
■ 6. Wellington 39.8
■ 7. Western 39.0
■ 8. Miramar 38.6
Region 4-7A
Dwyer, idle in Week 11, can overtake St. Thomas Aquinas for the No. 1 seed, even if the Raiders top Miramar, if two of the following three things happen: Olympic Heights beats Santaluces, Forest Hill beats Spanish River, Stranahan beats Fort Lauderdale.
McArthur can clinch the No. 3 seed with a win against Cardinal Gibbons, but if the Mustangs lose, Doral can surpass them with all three of the following: Chaminade-Madonna win over University School, South Miami win over Miami Coral Park and Pines Charter win over Nova.
Fort Lauderdale just needs to win to clinch at least the No. 6 seed, but the Flying L’s may be overtaken as the top wild card at No. 5, surprisingly, by Palm Beach Lakes. So long as they win against Suncoast, the Rams can leap three Miami teams and Fort Lauderdale, even if all win, with help from wins by just two of these four: Seminole Ridge against Royal Palm Beach, Olympic Heights against Santaluces, Forest Hill against Spanish River and Pahokee against Glades Central.
If Forest Hill beats River and gets help from Jupiter winning at South Fork and Heights topping Santaluces, the Falcons will get in, likely as the eighth seed in what may come down to a tiebreaker for seventh they would lose to Miami Springs by virtue of wins against Category-2 teams.
West Broward can still sneak in. The simplest path: a win, a Nova win over Pines Charter, Fort Lauderdale beating Stranahan and either Miami Springs or Forest Hill slipping; if those two win, the Bobcats need one of these three upsets: Santaluces beats Olympic Heights, South Fork beats Jupiter or Coral Park beats South South Miami.
Olympic Heights is not mathematically eliminated but has far too complex and unusual a series of outcomes needed to get in.
Believe it or not, neither Cooper City nor Blanche Ely — the Tigers who are 1-8 — are eliminated, but it would take monumental upset wins this week with an unprecedented number of other upsets to occur. Ely is likely to be eliminated once it plays the Soul Bowl on Saturday after Friday results are in.
Projected finish:
■ 1. Dwyer 44.1
■ 2. St. Thomas Aquinas 43.9
■ 3. McArthur 40.1
■ 4. Doral 39.7
■ 5. Palm Beach Lakes 39.5
■ 6. Fort Lauderdale 38.8
■ 7. Miami Springs 38.2
■ 8. Forest Hill 38.2
Region 4-6A
For Dillard, the Panthers are locked into the No. 4 seed as the District 15 champ that is unable to surpass No. 1 Carol City, second-ranked Palm Bay Heritage or third-ranked Daytona Beach Mainland. They will host powerhouse Miami Central, which is the No. 5 as the top wild card.
Boyd Anderson is still alive with a win against Coconut Creek and a lot of help elsewhere. By elsewhere, I mean various games all across the East Coast of Florida from Miami to Daytona Beach. I won’t bore you with all the details.
Region 4-5A
We know Cardinal Gibbons is the District 16-5A champ and will be one of the top three seeds, but the Chiefs could still finish as high as No. 1 in this region, depending on how points averages for Orlando Jones and Rockledge are affected in their areas this week.
We also know American Heritage will be the No. 5 seed as the top at-large qualifier. The Patriots will travel to Westwood, the No. 4 seed and by far the lowest-ranked district champ in the region, for the regional quarterfinal and put on a show for the good people of Fort Pierce.
Hallandale and Coconut Creek each have life with a win in their final game – the Chargers against Hollywood Hills and Cougars against Boyd Anderson – get strength-ofschedule help from previous opponents (four each) along with a drop in point averages for teams ahead of them like Merritt Island, Palm Bay and Space Coast.
Region 4-4A
University School has all but clinched the No. 1 seed, even if the Sharks lose to Chaminade-Madonna and second-ranked Glades Central tops Pahokee. For the Raiders to surpass USchool, they need those two results plus all six of these: Cardinal Newman win, Cocoa win, Oakleaf win, American Heritage-Delray win, Monsignor Pace loss and Melbourne Central Catholic loss.
That would be an unlikely climb for Glades Central, which, win or lose, still needs to watch out for Miami Booker T. Washington for the No. 2 ranking and first-round bye. Although the Tornadoes are idle, six games in MiamiDade and Broward can improve their strength of schedule for a big boost. Should Monsignor Pace upset Belen this week and Glades Central lose, there’s a chance Pace ends up ahead of the Raiders too.
Idle Coral Springs Charter still has a chance to take either the No. 5 or No. 6 spot if Gulliver Prep or Key West slip. Neither Pine Crest nor North Broward Prep can crack the top six.
Region 4-3A
Win or lose against University School, Chaminade-Madonna has clinched the region’s No. 1 seed.
Benjamin, which has completed its schedule is in line for the second spot and first-round bye, but American Heritage-Delray can take it with a win over Everglades Prep and all three of these results: Glades Central win, Glades Day loss and Pensacola Catholic win. It doesn’t look like the Stallions will get all the help they need as Glades Day is going up against 0-8 St. John Paul.
*King’s Academy and Cardinal Newman are in prime position to qualify in Region 2-3A. Glades Day is set to qualify for the playoffs in Class 2A and Pahokee will make it in Class 1A.