Floridians set early voting record
Decisive election will show political pulse of divided nation
The stage is set for a roller coaster finish in Florida’s midterm election, an ideological clash that has already shattered early-voting records for a non-presidential contest and produced off-the-charts campaign spending.
The result will reveal the political pulse of one of the country’s most important battlegrounds, drawing to a close a particularly nasty election that pits GOP gubernatorial nominee Ron DeSantis, backed by President Donald Trump, against Democratic nominee Andrew Gillum, supported by Bernie Sanders.
“For many people, this is their chance to vote for or against the president,” said Kevin Wagner, a political scientist at Florida Atlantic University. “It is a test of the president’s strength and tells us something about where he might be in 2020.”
History could also be made Tuesday if Gillum wins and becomes the state’s first black governor.
About 5.1 million Floridians have already cast ballots in the contest, the highest ever in a midterm election. Some South Florida voters stood in line for hours on Sunday, as “Souls to the Polls” turnout events sent people to the ballot box in droves.
Registered Democrats finished with a 24,523 advantage over Republicans in early and mail-in voting, according to statistics kept by the Florida Division of Elections.
The numbers don’t say which way voters cast their ballots, but political observers closely watch turnout numbers of registered Democrats and Republicans to get a hint of how their candidates are doing.
“This is an unusually large interest in a midterm election,”
Wagner said. “I think you can see that in the early voting. It is pretty clear that the president energizes both his supporters and the opposition.”
All signs are pointing to a photo finish with polls showing DeSantis and Gillum locked in a tight race for governor. Democratic U.S. Sen. Bill Nelson holds a razor-thin lead in his bid to defend his seat from Republican challenger Gov. Rick Scott, according to the latest polls.
The 5.1 million ballots cast during in-person early voting or by mail far surpasses the nearly 3.2 million ballots cast early in the last midterm election in 2014. So far this cycle, registered Democrats cast 40.6 percent of the vote, Republicans 40.1 percent and independents and other parties 19.3 percent.
About 38 percent of the state’s roughly 13.3 million registered voters have already cast ballots. In 2014, about 27 percent of registered voters voted early.
An early voting advantage doesn’t translate into victory. Democrats finished 2016 early voting with a 96,450 vote edge on Republicans, but Trump won the state on Election Day.
Voters witnessed plenty of political theatrics in the contentious election season.
The governor’s race saw a bitter slugfest of a debate. DeSantis blasted his opponent as “corrupt,” while Gillum spelled out the Nword on live television in reference to social media comments made by one of DeSantis’ donors.
The contest for Senate produced eye-popping political spending. Factoring in spending by outside groups, more than $180 million has been spent in Florida’s Senate race, making it one of the most expensive Senate races in the nation’s history.
Both sides took away positives from the results. Florida GOP Chairman Blaise Ingoglia said he expects a “massive turnout” Tuesday by Republicans who are pleased with the president’s performance and the state of the economy. Juan Peñalosa, executive director of the Florida Democratic Party, called Sunday’s early voting numbers “monster big” on Twitter, adding “I’d … rather be us than them.”
South Florida counties have had a strong showing in early voting. Early voting in Broward nearly matched the entire number of voters for the 2014 election, and in Miami-Dade County, early voting has already surpassed the total vote four years ago.
In Broward, 465,628 people cast ballots early compared with 474,620 for all of the 2014 election. In Miami-Dade, the earlyvoting total stood at 544,356 compared with 529,927 in all of the 2014 election.
Palm Beach County’s early voting total is 315,675 compared with 419,459 for all of 2014.
Perhaps, the biggest question for Election Day is how the state’s independents cast their ballots, Wagner said.
Whoever wins those voters will celebrate a victory, he said.