New Trump vs. Democrats poll has bad news for the president
On a day President Donald Trump is dominating the political news in Florida with his re-election message, a new statewide poll contained bad news for the president — and good news for Democrats hoping to defeat him, especially former Vice President Joe Biden.
The Quinnipiac University Poll found:
Trump is behind Biden by 9 percentage points. Trump also trails U.S. Sen. Bernie Sanders of Vermont by 6 points in head-to-head match-ups. Several other Democrats lead Trump by smaller percentages.
Slightly more than half — 51% — of Florida voters disapprove of Trump’s performance, representing a
slight improvement since Quinnipiac’s last Florida poll. And 62% of Florida voters say Congress should not begin the process to impeach Trump, with 32% in favor of beginning impeachment.
Among Democratic voters in Florida, Biden is far ahead of all the other candidates. Biden’s 41% is three times more than the next two candidates. Sanders and U.S. Sen. Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts are effectively in a distant tie for second place, with 14% and 12% respectively.
Trump vs. Democrats
Here is how the leading Democrats compare in hypothetical one-on-one match-ups with the president in the Florida poll released Tuesday and how they did in a nationwide Quinnipiac poll released exactly one week earlier:
Florida — Trump, 41%; Biden, 50%.
National — Trump, 40%; Biden, 53%.
Florida — Trump, 42%, Sanders, 48%.
National — Trump, 42%, Sanders, 51%.
In the other match-ups, the Florida contest is within the margin of error, so Quinnipiac deemed it too close to call.
Florida — Trump, 43%; Warren, 47%.
National — Trump, 42%; Warren, 49%.
Florida — Trump, 43%, Mayor Pete Buttigieg of South Bend, Ind., 44%.
National — Trump, 42%, Buttigieg, 47%.
Florida — Trump, 44%, U.S. Sen. Kamala Harris of California, 45%.
National — Trump, 41%, Harris 49%.
Florida — Trump, 44%; former U.S. Rep. Beto O’Rourke of Texas, 45%.
Last week’s national poll didn’t do a head-to-head match-up between Trump and O’Rourke.
Head-to-head match-ups generate lots of interest, but they’re not good predictors so far from Election Day. Most people don’t know much about many of the Democratic candidates, and it’s hard to predict who will be the party’s nominee.
Nate Silver, editor in chief of FiveThirtyEight.com, which specializes in political data analysis and polling, said Tuesday on Twitter that “to have a news cycle about general election polling **a year and a half before the election** is completely preposterous. If you want to argue about something, argue about primary polls.”
Trump approval
More than half of Florida voters don’t approve of Trump’s performance.
His approval stands at 44% — with 51% disapproving, a negative 7 percentage points.
But that’s an improvement since Quinnipiac’s March 15 poll, when 41% approved and 53% disapproved, which was a net negative of 12 points.
Quinnipiac said Trump’s approval rating is the best he’s had in Florida since he was elected.
Nationally, his approval a week ago was 42% positive and 53% negative.
In the Florida poll, Trump’s handling of the presidency is approved by 93% of Republicans, 53% of men, 51% of voters 65 and older, and 55% of white voters. Trump’s performance is disapproved by 93% of Democrats, 56% of independents, 59% of women, 57% of voters younger than 35, 52% of people age 35-64, 79% of black voters, and 58% of Hispanic voters.
Democratic primary
Biden is the leader for the Democratic nomination among his party’s registered voters in Florida, with 41%. He performed much better in Florida than he did in a national Quinnipiac Poll a week ago, which showed him with 30%.
His competitors fared worse in Florida than in the national poll.
“Vice President Biden is the big winner in this poll. He leads the Democratic pack by a considerable margin and he runs best of the Democratic candidates when matched up with President Trump,” Peter Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Poll Brown said in a written poll analysis.
Other candidates: Sanders, 14% in Florida; 19% nationally.
Warren, 12% in Florida;
15% nationally.
Buttigieg, 8% in Florida; 8% nationally.
Harris, 6% in Florida; 7% nationally.
No other contender tops 1% in Florida, Quinnipiac reported, with 16 candidates polling at less than 1%.
Impeachment
Republicans, independents, men, women, young voters, older voters, white and Hispanic voters all oppose impeachment. Republicans are the biggest opponents, with 96% opposed to beginning an impeachment promise.
Democrats — 64% to 28% — and black voters — 52% to 41% — are the only groups that support beginning impeachment.
Among independent voters, 62% oppose beginning an impeachment process and 31% are in support.
Views on impeachment show up in their representatives’ views of the issue. Even among liberal South Florida Democrats with safe seats, none has expressed support for beginning impeachment proceedings.
Voters divided
There are “deep gender and racial divisions” in a Biden-Trump match-up, Quinnipiac said.
Biden leads Trump among women, 58% to 34%. Biden leads 79% to 9% among black voters, and 57% to 32% among Hispanic voters.
Trump leads Biden among men, 49% to 42%. Trump leads 52% to 42% among white voters. Republicans back Trump 90% to 7%.
Biden leads 91% to 3% among Democrats and 54% to 32% among independents.
Fine print
Quinnipiac surveyed 1,279 Florida voters from Wednesday through Monday with live callers to landlines and cellphones. The survey has a margin of error of plus or minus 3 percentage points.
The survey included 417 registered Democrats. With the smaller sample size, the margin of error for questions such as the Democratic primary contest is higher, at plus or minus 6 percentage points.
Pollster ratings from FiveThirtyEight.com gave Quinnipiac an A minus last year for its data gathering and accuracy. It missed the mark in the Florida governor’s race, with four general election polls showing Democrat Andrew Gillum winning by an average of 6.3 percentage points. He lost. Quinnipiac’s polling was within the margin of error for the polls.