IS cells still active after leader’s death
Linked groups expected to push ahead with plots
Groups linked to the Islamic State have persisted across the Middle East and operate largely independently.
With the death of Islamic State leader Abu Bakr alBaghdadi, in a U.S. raid over the weekend in northern Syria, the militant group has suffered a serious setback. But it is, by no means, an insurmountable blow — neither in Syria nor elsewhere.
Cells affiliated with or linked to the Islamic State have persisted in South Asia, Africa and other parts of the Middle East. Though inspired by the Islamic State, also known as IS, those groups have operated largely independently of the militant network, which was based out of Syria and Iraq, and are expected to continue to push ahead with plots and propaganda efforts.
One key question will be to what extent global affiliates of the Islamic State or groups linked to it will remain loyal to a network that has lost all the territory it once held. These groups’ loyalty may differ from country to country.
The Philippines: The country emerged as a key hot spot in the fight against IS after extremists aligned with the group launched a battle for the city of Marawi in 2017. For months, the Philippine military tried to gain back ground, with material help from the United States and other countries. More than 1,000 people were killed — a figure that includes militants, soldiers and civilians, the military said.
But amid stalling progress in rebuilding the area, IS-linked groups are feared to be on the advance again.
South Asia: There have also been persistent concerns over IS-linked militants in India and its vicinity, in part fueled by the group’s propaganda. In April, IS asserted responsibility for the Easter Sunday bombings in Sri Lanka, in which more than 250 people were killed. In May, an IS propaganda outlet claimed the group had established a “province” in India and was behind a recent attack on Indian troops in Kashmir.
But in both cases, analysts raised doubts about the group’s capabilities to plot attacks of the scale of the Eastern Sunday bombings or to claim territory in the region in the same way as it had done in Syria and Iraq.
So far, the Islamic State’s presence in India has been fairly limited.
The only official Islamic State affiliate in South Asia is in Afghanistan, known as ISIS-Khorasan, with eastern Afghanistan as its stronghold. For more than five years, its militants have at times competed with and at times cooperated with the Taliban.
Its fighters have launched deadly attacks, mainly against Afghan Shiites. In August, the group asserted responsibility for a suicide bombing at a Kabul wedding in which more than 60 people were killed. Analysts also worry that ISIS-Khorasan’s reach extends into Pakistan.
Somalia: The Islamic State emerged in Somalia after some militants broke away from al-Shabab, an alQaida-linked
group, starting in 2015. Its presence has persisted, despite its rivalry with al-Shabab and despite pressure from the Somali government. More recently, Islamic State efforts to radicalize youths in neighboring Ethiopia have raised concerns.
West Africa: Security analysts worry that IS-linked groups, along with militants tied to al-Qaida, may be attempting a novel approach to gain a greater foothold in West Africa. Their new strategy? After deliberately provoking feuds among different ethnic groups, the militants systematically offer to “protect victims of the conflict they’re stoking,” The Washington Post wrote this month.
The footprint of ISlinked groups in Nigeria continues to be so big that it is considered to constitute a major security threat in the region.
Libya: Farther to the north, State IS-linked militants have wreaked havoc in Libya. The country’s political instability, the “rampant availability of weaponry” there since the 2011 revolt, and “local grievances” were among the factors that have contributed to the Islamic State’s presence in the country, terrorism researcher Inga Kristina Trauthig wrote in a paper for the European Union Agency for Law Enforcement Cooperation this year.
Yemen: Whereas IS has been in retreat in Syria and Iraq, it continues to have a presence in war-torn Yemen. Recent strikes appear to have diminished the foothold of the Islamic State and al-Qaida in the region, but both groups continue to exploit the country’s chaos.
Sympathizers: The group’s propaganda continues to attract recruits in the West and can still spur former fighters who have returned to their countries of origin into action.
It remains unclear how many former IS fighters escaped Kurdish prisons in northern Syria after President Donald Trump announced the withdrawal of U.S. troops from the region.