New model shows increased death projection.
Increased projection shows 74K in nation
One of the models used by the Trump administration to help steer its coronavirus response is showing an increase of projected deaths in Florida and the U.S., although it remains far less than originally predicted.
The Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation out of the University of Washington updated its projections Tuesday showing the state will reach 1,914 deaths by June 25, although its projections show the number of deaths could fall between 1,165 and 4,697. It’s still far fewer than the 7,000 deaths for Florida and between 100,000 and 240,000 fatalities nationwide originally predicted a month ago.
Now it puts U.S. deaths at 74,073 by July 15. For both the nation and Florida, the model now shows daily fatalities on a downward trend. The range of deaths for the U.S. is 56,563 on the low end with a high of 130,666.
The latest projections, though, are a jump of about 300 more deaths in Florida and about 6,500 more deaths in the U.S. than were projected last week. The model assumes social distancing will be in effect until
infections are minimized and containment implemented.
The updated model comes as Gov. Ron DeSantis said he will announce plans Wednesday on when he will begin to reopen the state as his stay-at-home order expires Thursday. He has said previously the state will reopen methodically to ensure public safety.
As more businesses reopen, the model’s authors are unsure of how that will impact the outbreak.
“Our current modeling
framework does not yet capture how the risk for more COVID-19 cases – and potentially deaths – could increase due to increased interaction among individuals,” the forecasters said. “This is particularly true if locations have not fully instituted strong containment strategies like widely available testing and contact tracing.”
While the availability of testing has approved, Florida has tested about 368,000 out of more than 21 million residents.
Last week, IHME released dates on when states could safely begin to peel back social distancing guidelines. For Florida, the date was June 11.
Coronavirus cases continue to rise in Florida, albeit at a slower pace. On Tuesday, the state announced 83 more deaths and more than 700 new cases. The 83 deaths does not mean that many people died in the state on Monday, but is likely catching up from reported deaths over the weekend. As of Tuesday, the
state had 1,171 deaths and 32,846 cases. Nationwide there are more than 1 million cases and 58,000 deaths.
The rolling projection for when Florida would be using its peak hospital resources and have its most deaths has changed with each update. When first released, it predicted the peak would be at the beginning of May. Other dates ranged from the end of April to the beginning of April. The latest date was last Thursday, when a “projected” 94 deaths occurred in the state.
Florida’s actual daily death count is a bit murky. Each day, the state Department of Health reports new deaths, but that isn’t the actual date of death for victims. For instance, last Thursday the health department reported 60 new deaths, but the state’s dashboard says the actual death toll was 44.
The highest day for deaths so far was 48 on April 17, according to the state.
The model also at first predicted that hospitals in Florida would run out of ICU beds by mid-April, but that prediction turned out not to be the case. ICU bed shortage has not been a problem and there are makeshift hospitals in South Florida that have so far gone unused. For hospital resources the “peak date” was April 19, according to the IHME model.
Hospital officials in Central Florida say its peak for using resources was the first two weeks of April. On April 8, 54 were people hospitalized, but by Sunday 13 people were hospitalized with the coronavirus, according to Orlando Health officials. Orange County officials said last week that it has seen four weeks of declining case numbers.