Too soon to grade Dolphins’ schedule
Dissecting Dolphins schedule pointless because NFL is as unpredictable as ever
Simply put, dissecting NFL schedules is dumb.
Who cares that your favorite team will travel 24,424 miles this season? It’s not as if the players will be traveling on foot.
Can we stop acting as if a six-hour plane ride requires a week of rest?
Why does it matter that five of the teams on the Miami Dolphins’ 2020 schedule qualified for the playoffs last year?
Do you seriously believe the New England Patriots are the same team they were in 2019 with Jarrett Stidham as Tom Brady’s replacement? Teams change every year, and they often evolve during the season because of injuries.
So who cares what the strength of schedule is?
That’s why its no big deal that the Dolphins have the NFL’s third-hardest schedule, based on 2019 opponent records (.529 strength of schedule).
That is based on last year. This is 2020, and every team has evolved and will continue to evolve as it faces new challenges.
But there are several key factors that truly matter when it comes to the composition of the Dolphins’ schedule.
The most important question: How many games does Miami play against elite quarterbacks? This year, there’s only two —
Russell Wilson and Patrick Mahomes — on the schedule. You can exhale.
Next, how many potential snow games are on the schedule? This year, there’s only two — Nov. 29 against the Jets and Jan. 3 against the Bills. It’s not very likely that snow will be seen in Denver on Oct. 18.
So far, so good.
How difficult is the season’s start and how many early games are at home?
The Dolphins open the regular season in Foxborough, which is usually where their seasons go to die — with the exception of last year’s improbable fourth-quarter victory that ended a 10-year losing streak. But after the opener against New England, the Dolphins host the Bills and then travel to Jacksonville before hosting Seattle.
On paper, that’s three teams that qualified for the playoffs in the first four games, but Miami will likely be facing Stidham in his first-ever NFL start and host an overrated Bills team that might struggle to match the national expectations if quarterback Josh Allen doesn’t clean up his game. Then we have the heat factor. How many home games will the Dolphins play in South Florida’s hottest months, allowing the heat and humidity to wear down their opponents?
The Dolphins only play three home games before November arrives.
While it still gets hot in South Florida in November and Decem
ber, it’s not change-your-shirtat-halftime hot, meaning the competitive edge the franchise has historically benefited from will be minimized.
Up next is who the Thursday night opponent is and where does the game fall? Thursday night games are difficult because teams have very little time to prepare and not enough time for the players to recover physically.
Teams usually run their base offense and defense, simply trying to make it through the game. So the team with the better quarterback or the team with the more veteran roster usually has the edge.
Considering the Jaguars and Dolphins have comparable rosters, and the fact that this year’s Thursday night game will be played in Week 3, this benefits Miami because veteran quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick has the edge over Gardner Minshew.
The next key question: Where does the bye week fall?
You don’t want it too early or too late, and you certainly need it to come at a time when the
older players would benefit from a break.
This is the first time in a while that the Dolphins will have a bye in late November (Nov. 22), and it could potentially allow them to finish the season strong. Three of the Dolphins’ final six games are against division opponents, all six are against teams in the conference and three are at home.
That stretch will likely determine Miami’s playoff fate.
The last key question that will accurately help assess the Dolphins’ schedule: How difficult is the team’s final stretch of games in December and January, which is when playoff contenders separate themselves from the pretenders.
That final span begins with three home games against the Bengals (Dec. 6), Chiefs (Dec. 13) and Patriots (Dec. 20), and ends with road games against the Raiders (Dec. 26 or 27) and Bills (Jan. 3).
Every game should be winnable except for Kansas City.
But that’s just it. Like everything else associated with analyzing NFL schedules and the endless supply of prognosticators, you just never know because it’s way too early to tell.