Florida avoided virus catastrophe by ignoring DeSantis, Trump
New evidence reinforces the idea that Florida escaped a wave of COVID-19 cases not because of
Gov. DeSantis but despite him.
The Tampa Bay Times asked 15 experts to review cell phone tracking data from before DeSantis issued a statewide stay-at-home order on April 1. The experts concluded that Florida avoided catastrophe because so many residents didn’t wait for the governor. They stayed home on their own.
Miami-Dade County, for example, issued its stay-at-home order on March 26. Over the five days before the order, however, more than half of the phones in the county never traveled more than a mile. That was a drop of roughly 80 percent from midFebruary through mid-March.
Epidemiologists say that because the novel coronavirus spreads exponentially five days can mean a dramatic reduction in cases.
According to the Times’ reporting, case growth declined in 56 of Florida’s 67 counties within six days of DeSantis’ order. Since it takes weeks for self-isolation to take effect,
Floridians themselves took the lead on protecting public health.
“I think the true heroes here are really the people of Florida,” Ali Mokdad told the Times. He’s a professor of health metric science at the University of Washington.
This trend began in mid-March, when the reality of the virus hit. On March 11, the World Health Organization declared the virus a global pandemic. Also that day, college and pro sports in the United States shut down after a National Basketball Association player tested positive.
Fortunately, during this critical time more Floridians were listening to public health experts and not to President Trump.
Most Floridians also were ignoring DeSantis. He claimed in mid-March that there was no community spread of the virus in the state. DeSantis thus disagreed with Dr. Anthony Fauci, the nation’s top infectious disease expert.
Yet DeSantis basically is claiming credit for Florida at this point falling below projections on cases and deaths. The governor insists he correctly took a more measured approach than other chief executives, so now Florida can start reopening with confidence.
As the Washington Post put it this week, DeSantis “has been traveling around Florida on what, at times, looks like a victory tour, missing only a giant banner that says: ‘They said we would be the next Italy, but they were wrong.’ ”
Florida, however, has not created the testing and contract tracing regimens that health care experts — and most economists — believe are essential. They would inspire confidence among the employees and customers businesses need.
So it was jarring, but hardly surprising, to hear Trump praise DeSantis for “doing a fantastic job…” DeSantis would not have become governor without Trump’s endorsement. If Trump doesn’t carry Florida, the governor likely won’t win a second term and position himself for a presidential run.
Aligning with Trump, however, carries risks for Florida. The president essentially has abdicated responsibility for providing test kits or protective equipment. He’s back to airing personal grievances and trying to rewrite history on everything from Russian interference on his behalf in 2016 to his months of delay on a response to the pandemic.
On Tuesday, Trump laughably took credit for the high approval ratings of governors compared to his own. They’re popular, Trump tweeted, because of all the supplies the federal government sent.
In fact, most Americans believe that Trump is moving too fast on urging states to reopen. And DeSantis has lower approval ratings than many other Republican governors.
We all want businesses to reopen. The trick is doing it as safely as possible and preparing Florida to contain the inevitable new outbreaks that will come as restrictions ease. Failure will damage the economy more than a slow reopening.
There’s danger to Florida and DeSantis if the governor gets it wrong. That’s why it matters that perhaps the people — not him — got it right.