Deaths could double by Labor Day
COVID-19 prediction dire unless people devote selves to masks, social distancing
Florida reported a record 173 more COVID-19 deaths on Thursday, and some researchers say the death toll could double by Labor Day unless people devote themselves to social distancing and facial coverings.
A total of 5,632 people have died in Florida since the pandemic began, which is in line with early predictions for the state. The Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation at the University of Washington, a leading pandemic model, predicted March 31 that Florida would see 7,000 deaths by Aug. 4.
The outlook was far better at the end of April, when the state was under a stayhome order. The institute predicted 1,900 deaths at the time, but the death count soared after businesses began to reopen.
Now, in a projection released five days ago, the institute forecasts that deaths will double by Sept. 4 without more social distancing and use of masks. Worse, deaths could reach 18,154 by Nov. 1 — more than three times as many as the state has seen so far.
The 173 deaths reported
Thursday eclipsed the 156 reported exactly one week ago. Thursday’s total also was an increase over the 140 deaths reported a day earlier.
Gov. Ron DeSantis said it’s important to understand that the deaths reported Thursday happened over weeks and even months, rather than a one-day surge. One of the newly reported deaths was a 97-year-old Palm Beach County man who died April 23, records show.
“Obviously we would love to have zero deaths,” the governor said during a news conference at a Melbourne hospital Thursday. The death toll would have been far worse without lockdowns and other measures to contain the spread in nursing homes and assisted-living facilities, he said.
The state Department of Health also reported rising infections, with 10,249 more cases on Thursday; almost half occurred in South Florida. The state has reported an average of 10,585 cases per day, and 121 deaths per day, over the past seven days.
“We’ve clearly stabilized with the cases,” DeSantis said of the recent data. Just one of the past six days had a higher total than the seven-day average — 12,478 cases on Sunday.
Florida has one of the worst outbreaks anywhere in the nation. The new infections reported Thursday bring the total cases to 389,868, the third-highest in the country behind California and New York, according to COVID Data Tracker from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.
DeSantis expressed hope the state will soon see encouraging data trends, based on signs of “positive momentum.” Over the past few days, the number of people showing up at hospital emergency rooms with coughs and other virus symptoms is less than half compared to the first week of July, he said.
South Florida
South Florida, which accounts for 29% of Florida’s population, reported 4,747 new cases in the past day, or 46.3% of the daily total for the state, according to the state Department of Health.
Broward County: 1,263 new coronavirus cases were reported Thursday, bringing the total to 45,010. A total of 561 people have died, seven more since Wednesday.
Palm Beach County: 761 new cases were reported, bringing the total to 28,267. A total of 742 people have died, 18 more since Wednesday.
Miami-Dade County: 2,723 new cases, bringing the total to 95,068. A total of 1,370 people have died. That’s 12 more than Wednesday.
Testing and the positivity rate
Florida says it has tested 3.22 million people since the pandemic began, and 12.1% have been positive.
Florida on Thursday reported a 12.3% positivity rate for tests statewide in the previous 24-hour period. The rate was 18.5% for Miami-Dade, 14.1% for Broward and 11.3% for Palm Beach County. Those figures are higher than the previous day.
The daily positivity rate is a closely watched figure, since it’s one of the numbers that indicates the prevalence of the disease in the population. In May, Florida’s positivity rate was about 5%.
“The percent positive has been better the past week than it was the previous week,” DeSantis said. “We’re definitely trending in a better direction. And I think if you take out South Florida the rest of the state is trending even better than that.”
Hospitalizations
The number of people being treated for COVID-19 at hospitals dropped slightly Thursday.
The total stood at 9,434 as of 11:31 a.m. Thursday, according to the Florida Agency for Healthcare Administration. About 24 hours earlier, the same report listed 9,504 patients.
Miami-Dade County has the most people hospitalized with a primary diagnosis of the new coronavirus: 1,990, a decrease of 11 since Wednesday. Next is Broward with 1,309, down by four since Wednesday. Palm Beach County has 605, which is unchanged.
A different report, from the state health department, shows 22,644 Florida residents have been hospitalized since the start of the pandemic. That’s an increase of 7,819 patients since July 1, when the total was 14,825 hospitalizations.
Deaths
Statewide: The official COVID-19 death total for Florida reached 5,632 on Thursday. That figure includes 114 nonresidents. The three South Florida counties account for 2,673 deaths, which is 47.5% of the state total.
Nationwide: Florida’s death rate is in the middle compared with other states. Florida’s death rate per 100,000 people was 24.4 as of Wednesday, according to the CDC’s data. The death rate is much higher in New York City with 278.9 deaths for 100,000. California has had 19.6 deaths per 100,000, and Texas has had 14.5 deaths.
Senior care: At least 2,557 deaths have occurred in nursing homes and longterm care facilities, a figure that represents 46.3% of the state total for coronavirus deaths of residents. MiamiDade County has the highest number of long-term care facility deaths, with 585, or 22.9% of the total. Palm Beach County had 301 deaths, or 11.8%, and Broward accounted for 186 deaths, or 7.3%.
COVID-19 is the state’s deadliest infectious disease, killing three times more Floridians a day than flu/ pneumonia, AIDS and viral hepatitis combined, records show. The most vulnerable to death and hospitalization are people older than 65 or those who have underlying health concerns such as weakened immune systems, diabetes or obesity.
Global view
U.S.: The coronavirus death toll in the United States reached 143,446 as of 11:35 a.m. Thursday, according to the Coronavirus Resource Center at Johns Hopkins University.
The United States has reported almost 4 million cases, the highest total in the world.
Worldwide: The global total reached almost 15.3 million cases Thursday, with at least 624,665 deaths, Johns Hopkins reported.
The U.S. has 4.3% of the world’s population and 26.1% of the world’s cases.