On your mark, get set for 60-game sprint
It’s been 298 days since the Miami Marlins last played a meaningful baseball game. Since then, a World Series champion was crowned, a global pandemic ravaged our livelihoods and the very existence of a 2020 MLB season was thrown into question.
But, perhaps against the odds, Friday marks Opening Day, as the Marlins travel to Philadelphia to begin a 60-game season unlike any before it.
And there is some optimism that team can compete.
Here are five questions that will dictate whether that’s wishful thinking or a realistic possibility: cautious this
1. How improved is this offense? It’s no novel revelation to say the Marlins will have to score more runs in games 2020 in order to compete. In 2019, they finished last in the league in slugging percentage and home runs and second-tolast in runs scored and onbase percentage.
With the additions of left fielder Corey Dickerson, newly converted center fielder Jonathan Villar and first baseman Jesus Aguilar, this lineup figures to be better.
But how much better? That could hinge on the development of some of the team’s younger position players. Could a healthy Brian Anderson put together eight home runs in a 60-game season? Can second baseman Isan Diaz couple his talent with improved production? Maybe catcher Jorge Alfaro, who homered in Tuesday’s exhibition game against the Braves, is primed for a breakout year. Don’t discount a boost from
Monte Harrison, a slugging prospect who will start the year with at the alternate training facility in Jupiter (with the minor leagues shut down).
It’s a group with high variance, but that’s part of this season’s intrigue.
“Our lineup is much improved with the additions of Corey Dickerson and Villar and Aguilar, and the development of our young players,” said president of baseball operations Michael Hill last month. “The growth that they’ve had — the Brian Andersons and [Jorge] Alfaros. We feel as confident as anyone when we start this thing, as I said, we’re trying to keep playing into October.”
While it’s reasonable to expect lineup to be better than 2019, the difference between modest and substantial improvement could determine the group’s destiny.
2. Can Sandy Alcantara and Pablo Lopez be a formidable 1-2 punch atop the rotation? Manager Don Mattingly did not hold back in his praise for this team’s ace.
“[Alcantara’s] stuff is as good as anyone,” Mattingly said last week. “I don’t care who you want to put out there.”
There’s real reason to believe 2020 will be a breakthrough year for Alcantara, coming off a season in which he was named an AllStar and subsequently posted a 2.78 ERA and nearly a 3-to-1 strikeout-towalk ratio over his final 11 starts. Continuing that trend into 2020 would mean stamping his name among the best pitchers in the division.
For Lopez, once an upand-coming pitcher in the organization, this is a pivotal year for his future. A season ago, he had a 4.23 earned-run average in midJune, allowing four earned runs or less in 13 of his 14 starts, when he went down with strained right shoulder. In seven starts after his return his ERA was 7.01.
If each can take the next step in their development, it’ll not only solidify this year’s starting rotation but also offer a foundation for future rotations, as talented pitchers — namely, Sixto Sanchez, Braxton Garrett, Edward Cabrera and Max Meyer — eventually make their way to Miami.
3. Can the bullpen find consistency? There are very few positive statistics to glean from last season, when the team went 57-105. And Miami’s 2019 bullpen ERA was not one area to find them.
The Marlins finished 2019 with the sixth-worst bullpen ERA (4.97) and the worst bullpen FIP (5.10), a statistic that calculates ERA independent of the quality of its defense.
In short: Miami needs to be better there, too.
That started with overhauling last year’s group. Of the 12 relievers that cracked the Opening Day roster, 11 are new faces.
Mattingly offered three names — Brad Boxberger, Yimi Garcia and Brandon Kintzler — who will be used in high-leverage, late-game situations. Kintzler and Boxberger, with 18 years and 126 career saves between them, bring some late-game experience. Garcia, 29, is coming off a solid season with the Los Angeles Dodgers.
Elsewhere, there questions abound.
The upshot? With rosters expanded to 30 players to start the season, Miami will be able to carry extra pitchers, in turn getting a feel for who could fill what role. Names like Alex Vesia, Nick Neidert, Sterling Sharp, Jordan Holloway and Stephen Tarpley will get the first crack at impressing. are
And if they don’t have the arms, plenty of pitchers loom in Jupiter with the chance to reinforce.
“You go back to guys you like,” Mattingly said Thursday. “There’s some reasons. Bullpens are usually a work in progress. They work themselves out. Guys are good, guys aren’t as good.”
4. Will (in)experience matter? That’s generally a rhetorical question in baseball. experience matters.
But given the nature of this season — with no fans, new rules, a condensed schedule, limited travel, etc. — the value of that experience could be limited. Or perhaps heightened. We don’t know because these times are unprecedented.
But for 10 Marlins, Friday will be the first game of their first Opening Day in the major leagues. That includes important pieces like second baseman Isan Diaz, starting right fielder Harold Ramirez, highly touted reliever Sterling Sharp and utilityman Jon Berti, among others.
Miami’s two most important pitchers are both 24 years old. And virtually nobody on the roster has experience in a competitive pennant race.
In summer training, that’s been used to energize the group. But that becomes a whole different conversation if Miami has a chance down the stretch.
For all the talk of a “60-game sprint” and being tied for the division lead in late-July, there would be one upside to falling out of contention quickly. The cancellation of the minor league season has left the bulk of Miami’s top prospects waiting at the Jupiter facility. Those guys will spend their days training, scrimmaging, preparing as if they’re on the verge of a call-up.
“The conversations were, basically, ‘Be ready,’” Mattingly said. “Because that call comes any day. It could be ‘today’s the day,’ should be the mentality of our guys down there.”
But if Miami struggles — and it has the toughest schedule in the league, as determined by 2019 win percentage — that could provide an opportunity for some prospects to gain Big League experience. Could No. 1 prospect Sixto Sanchez make a start? Would the team get some at-bats for No. 2 prospect J.J. Bleday? Would 2020 first-round pick Max Meyer get a look for some innings?
That is, obviously, not top of mind for Marlins brass just yet. This team thinks it can win. And perhaps it can.
But if it doesn’t, there might at least be some lateseason glimpses into the future to look forward to.
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