Big drop in COVID-19 cases
Florida experienced a sharp drop that may reflect tropical storm
A sharp drop in new COVID-19 cases Monday may reflect Florida’s brush with Tropical Storm Isaias, but there are reasons for optimism in longer term trends.
The case total is the lowest since June 23, when the state posted 3,286. But most state testing sites had been closed since 5 p.m. Thursday, as the tropical storm approached, which may also have affected the logging and reporting of test results from previous days.
Although the storm may have affected the day’s totals, the sevenday average of new daily cases, which smooths out day-to-day dips and spikes, has been declining since July 17. And while the hospitalization and positivity rates registered only slight declines Monday, both of these closely watched numbers have been falling for two weeks.
Gov. Ron DeSantis said Monday there was cause for optimism in the latest numbers, with several key statistics indicating the disease may be on the retreat.
“We are encouraged by some of the trends we are seeing,” DeSantis said during a news briefing at Broward Health corporate offices on Monday. “We continue to see a downward trend in visits to the Emergency Department with people with COVID-like illness. We’ve seen a peak in COVID-positive patients that are hospitalized statewide.”
In addition, he noted that the positivity rate, which indicates how widespread the disease may be in the state’s population, been coming down.
“Today we reported one of the lowest numbers of positive tests that we have reported in a long time,” he said. “We have had that two days in a row where the positivity has been 9%, which we were 15-16% there for a while. So, these are encouraging trends. Obviously there is a lot more work to do.”
Dr. Mary Jo Trepka, chairwoman of the Epidemiology Department at Florida International Unihas
versity, agreed with the governor that things were looking better, although she said the tropical storm rendered Monday’s numbers unreliable.
“We have to be really careful in interpreting today’s data,” she said. “The number of tests and the number of positives was artificially low because the testing sites were closed since last Thursday. So we can’t really rely on that.”
But Monday’s numbers aside, she said the general trend has been favorable.
“The last two weeks, things are looking better for Florida,” she said. “The number of cases has been declining. More importantly, the percentage of positive cases has been declining. That’s all very good news. The bad news is — and we really can’t count today’s data — we’re still not below 10%, at least not in a sustained fashion. We’re nowhere near 5%, which I think is where we need to be for things to get back to near normal.”
The extent to which the tropical storm may have reduced the number of cases announced Monday remains unclear. The number of test results reported Monday was the lowest by far in at least two weeks, the longest period available on the state’s web site, suggesting that a decline in test results accounted for much of the drop in cases. A total of 60,994 results were reported Monday, compared to 77,148 on July 20 and 102,176 on July 21.
Alberto Moscoso, spokesman for the Florida Department of Health, did not return a call and text on whether the tropical storm affected the results.
The state’s emergency management center, which maintains a COVID-19 media information line, responded in an email that did not answer the question. The unsigned email stated only that state testing centers were reopening quickly, other testing options had been available and that as the closure was planned, people with symptoms
had been prioritized for testing.
South Florida
South Florida, which accounts for 29% of Florida’s population, reported 1,834 new cases in the past day, or 39% of the daily total for the state.
Broward County: 556 new coronavirus cases were reported Monday, bringing the total to 58,531. A total of 773 people have died, three more than reported Sunday.
Palm Beach County: 324 new cases, bringing the total to 34,550. A total of 860 people have died, 12 more than reported on Sunday.
Miami-Dade County: 954 new cases, bringing the total to 123,644. A total of 1,710 people have died. That’s 25 more than reported Sunday.
Testing and positivity rate
A total of 3.8 million people have been tested in Florida since the pandemic began, producing a positivity rate of 13.09%. The state reports that 3.3 million people tested negative and 491,884 tested positive.
The positivity rate is an important figure, since it indicates the prevalence of the disease in the state’s population. In May, Florida’s positivity rate was about 5%. State officials say they’d like to see it to drop to less than 10%.
For daily test results reported on Monday, Florida had a 9.09% positivity rate, a decrease from Sunday’s 9.28%.
In South Florida the rates are 8.4% for Broward, down from Sunday’s 12%; 12.5% for Miami-Dade, down from 15.3%; and 9.8% for Palm Beach County, up from 8.2%.
Hospitalizations
The number of people hospitalized for COVID-19 increased by two statewide Monday and decreased by two in South Florida.
The number currently hospitalized stood at 7,970 at noon, according to the Florida Agency for Healthcare Administration. About
24 hours earlier, the same report listed 7,968 patients.
The number of people in hospitals for COVID-19 has been declining, a trend invoked by the governor in his news conference Monday.
The total hospitalized for the disease two weeks ago was 9,479, about 1,500 more than were hospitalized Monday.
At that news conference, Gino Santorio, chief executive of Broward Health, said the decline was reflected in his system’s five hospitals, which serve Broward County.
“It has been a challenging summer but it is pleasing to report a reduction in the number of hospitalization going on over two weeks here in South Florida as well as at Broward Health,” he said. “Today across our health system and our four hospitals we have 198 COVID-positive patients, which is a significant decline from what we have seen over the last couple of weeks. Notably, our ICU and vented numbers are also performing better than anticipated and projections.”
Miami-Dade County has the most people hospitalized with a primary diagnosis of the new coronavirus: 1,655 patients, a decrease of five since Sunday. Next is Broward with 1,159, a decrease of 11. Palm Beach County has 521, an increase of 14.
Since the start of the pandemic, a total of 27,366 have been hospitalized, according to the state health department. That’s an increase of 12,541 patients since July 1, when the total stood at 14,825.
Experts say people older than 65 are most vulnerable to hospitalization and death, along with people who have underlying health issues, including weakened immune systems, diabetes or obesity.
Deaths
Statewide: There were 73 new COVID-19 deaths reported Monday, bringing the total to 7,279, according to the Florida Department of Health, which posts daily updates. That figure includes 122 people who were not state residents.
South Florida’s three counties accounted for 3,343 deaths, or 46% of the state total.
Seniors: At least 3,066 deaths have occurred among residents and staff of nursing homes and longterm care facilities, a figure that represents 43% of the death toll for state residents.
Miami-Dade County has the highest number of longterm care facility deaths, with 612, or 20% of the total. Palm Beach County had 347 deaths, or 11%, and Broward accounted for 218 deaths, or 7%.
Nationwide: Florida has reported an average of about 175 deaths per day, or 1,226 total over the past seven days. Florida’s death rate ranks 19th in the United States, with compared with other states and the District of Columbia, with 33 deaths per 100,000 people, according to the U.S. Centers for Disease Control’s COVID Data Tracker.
New York City has the highest death rate, with 280 deaths per 100,000, followed by New Jersey, with 178.
Global view
U.S.: The coronavirus death toll in the United States reached 155,062 as of 2:15 p.m. Monday, according to the Coronavirus Resource Center at Johns Hopkins University.
The United States has reported nearly 4.7 million cases, the highest total in the world.
Worldwide: The global total surpassed 18 million cases Sunday, with at least 690,573 deaths, Johns Hopkins reported.
The U.S. has 4.3% of the world’s population, but nearly 26% of the world’s cases and 22% of the world’s deaths.