Florida sees lowest case count in 8 weeks

3,779 COVID-19 results added to state’s total

Florida’s Department of Health on Sunday reported 3,779 new cases of COVID-19 — the lowest daily total in nearly eight weeks.

Sunday was the lowest since June 23, when Florida reported 3,286 new cases. On Sunday, the state reported 104 additional deaths after back-to-back days of over 200 fatalities.

Those daily totals don’t reflect results from the past 24 hours, but rather several days and even weeks for COVID-19 death confirmations.

Florida has reported nearly 570,000 total cases and nearly 9,600 deaths during the coronavirus pandemic, according to state data.

Florida’s daily COVID-19 testing positivity rate — a figure that shows the prevalence of the disease in the population — was 7.79, marking the fourth straight day it’s been recorded below 10 percent. The state processed 58,229 results over the previous day.

According to state data, the positivity rate has stayed below 10 percent in eight of the past 10 days. The highest positivity over the past two weeks was 11.9%, reported Wednesday.

But state officials blamed that on a seven-week backlog of over 4,000 cases dumped into the system by a MiamiDade County lab.

If those cases are excluded, the positivity rate for that day drops to 9.35%.

Florida’s data show an improvement from negative trends last month. The state has hit as high as 15,300 cases, but has not had over 10,000 cases since July

Union of Concerned Scientists and a co-author of the report. “Minimizing that increase depends on getting people to destinations with low virus transmission rates and ensuring that those transmission rates stay low even when there’s an influx of evacuees.”

One simulation used the same routes evacuees took during 2018’s Hurricane Irma, which made landfall in the Florida Keys. That would take many South Floridians to counties that lack the same strict public health measures imposed in South Florida. The result: 61,000 new COVID-19 cases, 20 percent more than if nobody evacuated.

In another simulation, evacuees from South Florida were directed to counties with stricter public health measures and lower COVID-19 transmission rates. That simulation predicted

“In every scenario we analyzed, hurricane evacuations cause an increase in the number of COVID-19 cases.” Kristy Dahl, Union of Concerned Scientists

9,100 more COVID-19 than the baseline — still a lot, but far fewer than the Hurricane Irma simulation.

Authors of the study, which is currently under peer review, said their findings are not meant to create a fear of evacuations, which are critical to get residents out of the way of catastrophic natural disasters. But they hope it will help emergency mangers create informed plans that can mitigate the impact of evacuations on COVID-19 transmissions.

Early this month, Hurricane Isais threatened South Florida as it approached the coast. While the state was spared a direct hit, the storm revealed the challenge local officials have when managing evacuations in the midst of a deadly pandemic.

Palm Beach County officials told its residents that that the safest option was to stay home or with family and friends. Shelters were considered to be the last resort, officials said. Shelters in Palm Beach, Miami-Dade and Broward counties had temperature checks at the door, mask requirements and in some cases, limited capacity to promote social distancing.

Scientists acknowledged that the study cannot account for many of the decisions individuals will make during an evacuation, which would further influence the transmission rate.