Laura, Marco likely the next tropical cyclones
Scientists say chances for pair have increased
Two disturbances in the Atlantic Ocean were each given higher chances of becoming tropical cyclones on Sunday.
Both now have a 50% chance of developing, the National Hurricane Center said in a tropical weather outlook Sunday night. That’s up from 20% on Sunday morning.
One of the tropical waves is a system located several hundred miles east of the Windward Islands on the eastern rim of the Caribbean. The other tropical wave is just west of the African coast. Both are generating large areas of rain and clouds.
Both disturbances are expected to move west. The National Hurricane Center’s latest tropical weather outlook, issued at 8 p.m. Sunday, shows that the wave closest to the Caribbean is so far expected to travel west across the Caribbean Sea toward Central
America, before making a slight turn to the northwest.
The wave closest to Africa is projected to travel slightly northwest toward the Caribbean.
It was still early, however, and those forecasts could change.
The next disturbance to become a named storm will be called Laura, and if that occurs before the end of the month, 2020 would tie 2005 for the most tropical storms in history entering September, with a dozen.
After that, the remaining names for 2020 are Marco, Nana, Omar, Paulette, Rene,
Sally, Teddy, Vicky and Wilfred.
Kyle, the earliest 11th named storm to form in history, breaking the previous record set by Katrina’s Aug. 24 formation in 2005, had faded into a post-tropical cyclone by Sunday morning over the north Atlantic, prompting the National Hurricane Center to stop issuing public advisories for Kyle after the last one was issued at 5 a.m. Sunday.
Tropical Depression Josephine, which formed in the mid-Atlantic Ocean on Thursday, dissipated into a remnant low on Sunday afternoon. The remnants were moving west-northwest at 12 mph as of the hurricane’s last advisory at 5 p.m. Sunday.
In July, there were five tropical storms: Edouard, Fay, Gonzalo, Hanna and Isaias. Other named storms this year have included Arthur, Bertha, Cristobal and Dolly. Tropical Storm Arthur formed in mid-May, making this the sixth straight year that a named storm formed before the official start of hurricane season on June 1.
Virtually all estimates for this hurricane season predict an above-average number of storms, due to unusually warm ocean temperatures and global climate factors that are likely to reduce the high-altitude winds that can prevent the formation of hurricanes.
The hurricane experts at Colorado State University said in their latest forecast for the 2020 season, issued last week, that they expect 24 named storms, 12 hurricanes and five major hurricanes this year. That’s up from its July 8 forecast, in which they predicted 19 to 20 named storms.
If this latest prediction is accurate, the 2020 Atlantic hurricane season will be the second-busiest on record, behind only 2005, the year that spawned 28 storms, including Katrina and Wilma.