Experts: Not so fast on Phase 2
Scientists recommend caution amid DeSantis’ optimism on South Florida
Leaders should wait at least a month before they even consider opening entertainment venues and relaxing restrictions in South Florida if they want to avoid another surge of the new coronavirus, health experts say.
Gov. Ron DeSantis provided some hope this week to pandemic-weary South Florida when he hinted the region is on the verge of joining the rest of the state in the Phase 2 reopening, citing significant downward trends.
That would mean restaurants could offer bartop service. Concert halls, bowling alleys and movie theaters could welcome back patrons at reduced capacity. Phase 2 is also an important benchmark for resuming in-person learning at schools.
Mary Jo Trepka, an epidemiologist at Florida International University, said she is seeing some positive signs. The rate of new cases and hospitalizations is falling in South Florida.
But the region is missing the World Health Organization’s benchmark that the positivity rate be kept under 5% for at least two weeks before measures are lifted. The positivity rate is the percentage of COVID-19 tests that come back positive and is an important statistic experts are tracking.
“We are much worse off than we were when we reopened earlier this summer,” Trepka said. “We have to be very cautious.
Otherwise, things can explode again.”
She said leaders should wait at least a month to consider reopening — and that’s assuming the downward trend of cases holds and the positivity rate continues falling.
In South Florida, the most recent daily positivity rates were 7.28% for Broward, 9.65% for Miami-Dade and 5.23% for Palm Beach County, according to the Florida Department of Health.
The state has set its target positivity rate higher at 10%, which is higher than the World Health Organization’s benchmark.
South Florida hasn’t recovered from the last surge, which strained the health care system to the point that patients in Miami-Dade County had to be diverted to Broward County hospitals, Trepka said.
On Wednesday, 515 COVID-19 patients in South Florida were on ventilators, compared with 152 on June 1, according to data being tracked by Florida International University.
It’s also still taking too long for patients to get their coronavirus test results, which means it is impossible to do the contact tracing needed to contain the virus, Trepka said. The World Health Organization’s guidance calls for at least 80% of new cases to have their close contacts traced and in quarantine within 72 hours.
Health experts also are watching to see whether cases will rise again with Labor Day travel and students returning to classrooms. A hurricane could also force people into shelters and increase transmission.
Jay Wolfson, a public health expert at the University of South Florida, agreed more time is needed to ensure the curve has been flattened and to identify and contain new hot spots.
Ultimately, leaders must consult a variety of factors when deciding whether to relax restrictions — from
hospitalizations to the positivity rate, he said.
“There are no uniform lockdown guidelines,” he said. “It is like prunes and constipation: Three enough? Six too many? Depends on metabolism and other factors.”
DeSantis hasn’t provided a time frame on when he thinks South Florida should move ahead in reopening, although he suggested it could come soon.
“I’m not saying I’m going to do it today or we’re gonna do it tomorrow,” DeSantis said. “[But] these are sustained trends at this point, and I think that that’s a good thing.”
Broward County Administrator Bertha Henry said she advised DeSantis on Thursday she does not think her county is ready to enter Phase 2.
“He will not be forcing the county to go to Phase 2,” she said.
Broward County Mayor Dale Holness said he would like to see the positivity rate fall below 5% before easing restrictions.
“I don’t want us to open and end up where we were before with a high positivity rate and hospital beds filling up,” he said. “That will scare people from going out. I want to get to a place where people feel comfortable going out.”
In Palm Beach County, officials have begun crafting plans for a modified Phase 2 reopening, which will be tailor-made to specific industries.
“What I would like to see is sustaining these trends for just a little while longer,” Palm Beach County Mayor Dave Kerner said. “I don’t have a date in mind, but we’re certainly in the territory where we need to be prepared to pull that trigger. And by being prepared, that means having robust plans and staffing in place to make sure this is done correctly.”
One of the ideas is for larger businesses, such as movie theaters and bowling alleys, to work with officials to develop reopening plans.
Miami-Dade Mayor Carlos A. Gimenez could not be reached for comment
Thursday.
A Phase 2 reopening also is supposed to allow bars, pubs and taverns to operate at 50% seating capacity, but DeSantis closed bars across the state when coronavirus cases exploded. It’s unclear when those establishments will be able to reopen.
The rest of the state moved to Phase 2 weeks ago. The governor withheld the designation in South Florida because COVID-19 cases were still growing in the region.
The Palm Beach County School District plans to physically reopen schools one week after entering Phase 2. In Broward County schools, Phase 2 is one of five criteria the district will consider when deciding to offer face-to-face instruction.
While COVID-19 positivity rates have been trending downward, Kerner acknowledged cases will likely rise once the county enters Phase 2, but he thinks leaders will be well-equipped to handle it.
“This is the real world and we anticipate even if it’s perfectly-executed, there will be a broader range of exposure throughout the community,” Kerner said. “That just comes with the territory. It’s happened everywhere.