Perfect storm helps produce sweeping change
Demographic shifts, coronavirus and a racial justice movement combine for primary shockers in Broward County
Changing demographics plus the coronavirus plus the racial justice movement came together in recent weeks to produce sweeping change in Broward County’s political leadership.
Some of the same dynamics could portend an energized electorate in November that could tip Florida to Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden.
“The election was an earthquake for Broward County,” said Clay Miller, president of the Broward Young Democrats.
“Throughout Broward County — whether it was
School Board or supervisor of elections or state attorney, all races — what we saw was a desire for new faces, for new energy,” Miller said. “When you combine the unprecedented stakes and unprecedented open seats with COVID and the protests, I think it created the perfect storm for something different.”
Results: In races that culminated on Tuesday, voters made decisions that mean in January, Broward County will have a Black sheriff, state attorney, public defender, clerk of courts — and supervisor of elec
tions unless the early results change in Saturday’s recount.
The only office held next year by a white officeholder is county property appraiser — where no one stepped forward to challenge the incumbent.
“It’s wonderful that there’s going to be representation in Broward County in a community that has lacked representation historically,” said political consultant Sean Phillippi, who had winning and losing candidates in primaries. “Now there is significant representation.”
It’s a dramatic and powerful change, said Michael Howson, who is active with Black Lives Matter Alliance Broward. He grew up in the county, and as black student attending Dillard High School in the early 2000s, “it was still kind of understood ... there were certain places you didn’t want to be.”
Voter interest: The August primaries and nonpartisan elections generated lots of interest in voters, especially among Democrats.
Overall turnout in Broward was 25.9%. While that doesn’t sound great, the 317,000 votes cast, according to unofficial returns, is significantly higher — 17% more — than the number of Broward voters who went to the polls in August 2018.
Democrats and Republicans both had competitive primaries for governor that attracted lots of voter interest, so it’s notable that more voters went to the polls this year compared to year when there was a lot of action on both sides.
The increase came from Democrats, something party strategists said shows their voters are fired up by President Donald Trump, the continuing COVID-19 pandemic, and calls for racial justice — and they believe will help them in the November presidential election.
There were 216,713 Democratic, 59,899 Republican and 40,558 no party affiliation ballots. No party affiliation/independent voters were allowed to participate in nonpartisan elections for offices such as judge and School Board.
Richard DeNapoli, the Broward state Republican committeeman and former county party chairman, said the number of his party’s voters decreased perhaps 10% compared to two years ago.
He attributed the decline to a lack of hot Republican primaries and said people shouldn’t assume there are negative implications for President Donald Trump from the increase in Democratic primary votes and decrease in Republican votes. (DeNapoli was on the Republican primary ballot, winning reelection as state committeeman with 64% of the vote.)
Phillippi, a Democrat, said the increased primary turnout, and especially the increased turnout among Black voters, “bodes very, very well” for Biden. Broward is the largest pool of Democratic votes in the state. If things go well for the Democrats, the county can produce enough Democratic votes to swing a statewide election.
COVID effect: Voting during the pandemic changed radically. There was a massive increase in the number of people voting by mail. Far fewer people voted in person.
In August this year, 212,955 people voted by mail in Broward, an increase of 133% from 2018. Another 40,040 people used early voting centers, down 38% from 2018. And about 64,000 voted in person on Tuesday, down 45% from 2018.
As mail voting has increased in recent years, campaign strategists and political scientists haven’t been able to prove whether not it increases overall turnout or simply changes the way people vote.
But it has a clear impact on the way campaigns are run. With people voting over the course of weeks, campaign messaging to voters needs to be sustained over a longer time, not just the final days before one big election day. And if people continue using mail voting in much larger numbers after the pandemic, it could dramatically alter campaigning.
Implications of voting shift
Phillippi, founder of the political data firm TLE Analytics, said the increase in voting by mail is a big deal and could permanently change elections and lead to higher participation from broader pool of voters in the future.
“I don’t think people fully appreciate it because they haven’t had the time to fully absorb it,” he said. “We’re going to see the impact of what has happened [with mail voting] because of COVID for years to come.”
Many of the Democrats who voted by mail requested their ballots for the first time during the last 60 days, Phillippi said. Except for those who requested mail ballots for August voting only, their requests mean they’ll automatically get mail ballots in November
and in the 2022 election for governor and U.S. Senate.
Once in hand, Phillippi and Miller think more casual voters might find it so easy they’ll go ahead and use them.
Demographic change
The county has been changing demographically, and those changes had a big effect on the 2020 results.
“The diversity of Broward County is really coming though now,” said former state Sen. Chris Smith, a Fort Lauderdale Democrat.
A generation ago, Smith said, candidates who wanted to win primaries needed the blessing of powerful leaders of condominium communities, who could determine the outcome of elections based on which candidates they put on the palm cards they distributed to their followers. The massive population of retirees from the northeast who fueled the power of the condo bosses is much smaller today than in past decades.
“We all grew up in Broward County and its condos controlling Democratic politics. Now you see communities of color have taken that mantle of controlling Democratic politics,” said Smith, a former Democratic Party leader in the Florida Senate and Florida House. “The rules have changed.”
The county’s Democratic registered voters are 39% Black, 33% white, and 19% Hispanic, which means diverse candidates can win party nominations for countywide office. Until recently, gains for nonwhite candidates happened more in smaller districts, for the County Commission, state Legislature and cities, where there were large enough voting blocs to make a difference.
Some of Tuesday’s primary winners will have Republican challengers in November. But Broward is so Democratic, winning the party primary is a virtual guarantee of winning the
November election, with the voting almost a formality.
The large number of open seats contributed to this year’s change.
State Attorney Mike Satz, first elected in 1976, didn’t seek a 12th term this year. Public Defender Howard Finkelstein decided not to seek a fifth term. Appointed Supervisor of Elections Peter Antonacci didn’t run for the job.
Sheriff Gregory Tony, who is Black, was appointed and hadn’t faced the voters before this year. The only elected Black official countywide — outside of some judges — was Clerk of Courts Brenda Forman, who came in first in a multicandidate primary in 2016 and again this week.
Eric Johnson, a Democratic strategist who has run federal, statewide and local campaigns, said multiple factors came together in 2020.
“What you saw in these races was strong candidates of color emerge in each of these races. I think the candidates have started to follow the demographics. These races are now having stronger candidates that are able to raise amounts of money and field strong campaigns and have the voter base,” Johnson said. “It’s all finally coming together this year.”
Political environment
The combination of the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic, and the movement for racial justice that blossomed after the white police officer killed George Floyd in Minneapolis, made people much more interested in voting, Miller said.
That was especially true for Black voters, Phillippi said. For mail ballots returned though Monday, he said the return rate was 63% for Black Democrats and 58% for white Democrats.
“Black voters are hugely motivated,” he said. “Black voters are fired up to vote.”