Two tropical waves could develop in next few days
A tropical depression could form over the northwestern Caribbean Sea or the southern Gulf of Mexico in the next several days, according to the National Hurricane Center.
Based on the latest forecast track, the system is expected to reach the east coast of the Mexico’s Yucatan Peninsula on Saturday.
Forecasters said Thursday that the system would likely become a tropical depression by early next week but “only if the system moves and remains over the waters of the northwestern Caribbean Sea or southern Gulf of Mexico.”
It would be less likely to become a depression if it moves over the Yucatan Pensinsula or northern Central America, according to a tropical weather outlook from the National Hurricane Center.
It has been given a 80 percent chance of development in the next five days.
Another tropical wave formed Wednesday night a few hundred miles east of the Lesser Antilles, the hurricane center said. It is expected to move west for the next several days into the Caribbean Sea by nextweek. It has been given a low chance of development.
Dan Kottlowski, lead forecaster for AccuWeather, said disturbances that develop in October in the western Caribbean are tough to predict. He used Hurricane Michael, which struck Florida’s Panhandle in 2018, as an example.
“We were dealing with an area of low pressure very similar to this, developed down off the coast of Honduras, and initially models had nothing, had just a weak storm coming northward and that was it,” he said. “And you know what happened to Michael. Michael was a Cat 5 and it blasted Panama City… a lot of weather systems that develop down there are very difficult to forecast in October because there’s a lot of scenarios that can play out in these kinds of situations.
This has been a busy hurricane season with nine named storms making landfall in the continental U.S., which ties the record number established in 1916. Beta become the first storm named after a letter of the Greek alphabet to make landfall in the continental U.S. when it hit Texas on Sept. 21.
The 2020 hurricane season is rivaling 2005 for activity. The 2005 season, which featured hurricanes Katrina and Wilma, both of which made South Florida landfalls, had a record 28 named storms.
So far, the 2020 season has produced 23 named storms. The next to form would be called Gamma.
This is the heart of hurricane season and NHC director Ken Graham posted an online reminder earlier this month to remain vigilant and aware of developments.
Because 2020 is a LaNiña year, forecasters expect late-season storm activity to increase in late September and October and possibly even carry into November. Hurricane season ends Nov. 30.
Last week marked the first time in about threeweeks the National Hurricane Center didn’t detect any activity in the Atlantic Ocean worth monitoring.
A shift in the jet stream is the suspected cause for the lull in storm activity. It’s responsible for producing high pressure that is forming an elongated area of wind shear.
But forecasters still expect a busy October, perhaps starting with the system that could form soon.
“I’d say right nowwe feel confident there will be at least some kind of an area of low pressure developing down there,” Kottlowski said, “but where it goes and what becomes of the intensity of this system is really highly speculative right now.”