Four things to watch on and after Election Day in Broward

Election Day 2020 is upon us, and for Broward voters, it means more than just a bitterly contested presidential race finally coming to a presumable end. It means new faces in law enforcement, higher expectations from non-white citizens, focused responses to the pandemic and an economic outlook that could permanently change the face of Broward County.

Here are four key issues Broward voters should watch in the run-up to, and the aftermath of, Election Day 2020:

Turnout

Voter turnout is tricky to predict. The effect on local races is even trickier. Four years ago, about 291,000 voters requested mail-in ballots, about 19% of registered voters. Of those, 204,063 voted by mail, according to the Broward Supervisor of Elections Office. That amounted to roughly 25% of the ballots actually cast in the race.

This year, mail-in ballots were requested by 557,664 voters, about 44% of the total number of registered voters. Is it a sign of greater voter participation? Or is it just an increase in the popularity of vote-by-mail during a pandemic?

It’s the pandemic, said Steve Vancore, spokesman for the Broward Supervisor of Elections. “There’s absolutely no doubt,” he said. “What we’re seeing is a shift in the method of voting. You’re not going to double voter turnout just because you nearly doubled the mail-ins.”

That would be impossible — overall turnout in 2016 was nearly 72% in Broward.

Still, the increased interest in mail-ins could be a sign of increased turnout. Already, more than 150,000 ballots have been returned, Vancore said, and the election is still three weeks away.

Numerically, increased turnout would appear to favor Democrats like Gregory Tony, the Republican-appointed sheriff running as a Democrat for his first full, elected term, and Harold Pryor, the political novice poised to become the first Black man elected to the county’s top prosecutor’s job. Democrats outnumber Republicans two-to-one in Broward among registered voters, and three-to-one among those who’ve

three-to-one among those who’ve requested mail-in ballots. That could be a bad sign for State Rep. Chip LaMarca, a Republican who represents the coastal cities of northern Broward. “He’s vulnerable,” said Democratic political consultant Judith Stern. “I never felt that way in past elections, but this time I think he’s in trouble.”

Party registration in the 93rd House District is a bit more even than in the rest of the county. Expressing confidence in his ability to keep Democrat Linda Thompson Gonzalez at bay, LaMarca told the South Florida Sun Sentinel in an interview last month that the seat is not “flippable.” At the same time, he downplayed his own party affiliation by noting that he was not publicly supporting President Trump’s re-election bid. “There’s no sign in my yard,” he said.

Race and reform

The odds favor Black officials elected to five key countywide positions, and while all citizens are affected, Black voters in particular will want to see some results, said County Mayor Dale V.C. Holness, whose primary season support helped boost the candidacies of Tony, Pryor, supervisor of elections candidate Joe Scott, incoming Public Defender Gordon Weekes, and recently re-elected Clerk of Courts Brenda Forman.

“Black voters will no longer be taken for granted in Broward County,” Holness said. “Not when the people in office have a similar lived experience.”

Weekes’ election is a political certainty — his only opponent is a write-in candidate with no campaign presence. Scott and Tony have Republican opponents who are seen as unlikely to overcome the Democrats’ registration advantage, although Tony’s opponent, Wayne Clark, is hoping to ride the incumbent sheriff’s political controversies to an upset on Nov. 3.

On paper, Pryor faces the toughest election race, up against a Republican opponent, Gregg Rossman, who has more experience as a prosecutor and a more traditional approach to law and order.

Still, local political analysts believe the race is Pryor’s to lose.

COVID and beyond

Candidates claim the response to coronavirus is the No. 1 issue of the election in legislative races.

For congressional incumbents, COVID is a glaring example of why the Affordable Care Act needs to be protected and expanded, while the president seeks to have it repealed. U.S. Reps Alcee Hastings, Lois Frankel and Debbie Wasserman Schultz all named health care their top issue, with coronavirus figuring prominently in their campaigns.

For state and county races, candidates appear focused on the same debate that has engrossed the country since early March — what is the best way to keep the virus from spreading without bringing schools, commerce and recreating to a halt?

“Place special emphasis on testing, tracking and tracing aswell as invest funds to fight and beat this virus,” said Holness, running for re-election to the County Commission (though not as mayor). “At the same time, we have to be mindful of the effects of our action on the economy and the ability for people to earn a living and provide for themselves and their families.”

The economy

COVID isn’t just a health emergency. While his Democratic opponent criticized the state’s Republican-response to the pandemic and emphasized the need for access to adequate health care, LaMarca addressed COVID first as an economic issue

“We need solutions to give people and small businesses the support they need during hard economic times,” he said in response to a Sun Sentinel questionnaire.

Beyond the health issue, Thompson Gonzalez warned that Florida’s economy is failing to provide a safety net for workers during the kind of difficult economic times the state has experienced in 2020. “The GOP legislature and Governor have taken no action to fix long standing systemic problems, even though multiple audits warned of the danger.” she said.

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COVID from an economic angle, Thompson Gonzalez viewed climate change through the same lens. Florida’s economy cannot thrive without a comprehensive approach to the international issue, she said. “Our community and economy depend on our environment, beaches and oceans,” she said. “Rising sea levels, red tides, and pollution threaten our homes, businesses, and wildlife. A comprehensive, statewide plan is the only way to deal with the issues threatening the future viability of our community.”

Early voting starts Monday

The ballots are in the mail. They’re on your kitchen table, waiting to be opened, filled out and returned. They’ll be at early voting sites come Monday. And, if all else fails, they’ll be waiting for you at your local polling place on Nov. 3.