■ Editorial: What we’ll be watching for on Election Day.
Florida will be one of themost-watched states in this most-watched presidential election. But this time, we don’t expect Florida to be last in reporting results. This time, we expect that distinction to go to the swing states of Michigan and Pennsylvania, which can not begin processing their mail-in ballots until Election Day. Florida, by contrast, hasbeen processing mail-in ballots for threeweeks, though they won’ t bet allied until the polls close at 7 p.m .,8 p.m. in the western Pan handle.
Besides the presidential race, here are a number of other elections and voting issues that the Sun Sentinel editorial board willbe watching:
Turnout: Turnout will decide whether President Donald Trump or former Vice President Joe Bid en wins Florida. If Bro ward breaks its 1992 turnout record of 82.5%, the president’s chances of a second Florida victory are doomed. Aso-so-Broward turn-out— below75%— will help Trump. Going into Election Day ,64% of Bro ward voters had voted early orby mail. Democratic strategist Steve Schale says Broward is “cooking with propane.” Strong, in other words. We’ll be watching the strength of Broward’s Black vote and youth vote, both of which under performed for Hillary Clinton in 2016.
Miami-Dade: With 1.6million voters, Florida’s largest county is the state’s biggest prize and is certain to favor Biden. But with a growing number of younger Cub ans favoring Trump, closing the gap in this blue-leaning county is critical for the president.
Four years ago, Hillary Clinton won Miami-Dade by 34 points, yet still lost the state. Democrats worry about an October poll that showed Bid en ahead by just 20 points in Dade, with ho-hum turn outgoing into Election Day :56% of 634,000 registered Democrats compared to 63% of 428,000 registered Republicans. (About47% of4 74,000 voters registered as No Party Affiliation also have voted.)
Dade’s importance is why Barack Obama has made two appearances, Trump held a Monday midnight rally in Opa-locka and Kamala Harris made a second visit.
Miami-Dade voters also will elect anew mayor, thesecond-mostpowerful executive office in the state after governor. If front-runner Daniella Levine Ca va wins, she will be the county’s first non-His panic mayor in 24 years.
Precinct problems: More than 1 million Floridians are expected to vote in personon Tuesday, with about a third of them in South Florida. With emotions running high, the pandemic getting worse and the eyes of the nation on Florida as usual, the possibility of trouble at the polls can’ t be overlooked. The U.S. Department of Justice says it will be monitoring voting in Broward, Palm Beach and Miami-Dade.
Because so many people have already voted, Broward’s elections supervisor expects only about 120,000 voters on Tuesday. In the event of disturbances, he’ s armed precinct captains with affidavits to give law enforcement officers. So far, Bro ward has only had isolated cases of mask-less voters, obnoxious bullhorns and petty harassment.
Rejected ballots: The pandemic produced an historic surge in mail-in ballots and that means more rejected mail ballots. Despite enormous media attention on ballot signatures, too many voters still get it wrong. A Sunday morning update said 182 Bro ward voters hadn’t signed their ballots, 40hada different signature ,54 were signed by someone else and 36 had moved away. Voters have until 5 p.m. Thursday, two days after the election, to cure defects.
Unreturned ballots: Statewide ,1.4 million mail-in ballots had still not been returned by Monday, and more are held by Democrats (42%) than Republicans (31%). That spells trouble for Democrats. For weeks, both sides have been texting laggards. Buton Monday, 73,000 Bro ward Democrats had still not returned their mail ballots (21.5%). If Trump wins another close one in Florida, those forgotten votes will loom large.
Ballot scan no longer be turned in at voting sites, by theway. They must now be turned in at an elections office( Bro ward has two, Palm Beach five.) Anyone in line atoneof these offices by 7 p.m. will be allowed to drop off their ballot.
Postal Service: Broward’s elections supervisor says speed bumps have been eliminated between the post office and the elections office, but will all ballots be delivered by 7 p.m.? Or as we saw in Miami-Dade over the weekend, willmore unattended ballots be found down the road?
N PA voters: Then early 4 million Florida voters who reject both major parties willbe the difference-makers again this year. A clue to how NPAs will vote for president willbe in Osceola County, home of Disney World, where34% of voters are unaffiliated, the highest of any county. NPAs are most likely tobe His panic and are harder to motivate. They makeup26% of the Florida electorate, yet account for21% of all ballots cast sofar.
Frankel vs. Loomer: Democratic U.S. Rep. Lois Frankel of West Palm Beach is a favorite to win, but first she must shutdown the weirdest side show in local politics. That’ s Republican Laura Lo om er, a far-right agitator whose hate speech toward Muslims and others got her banned on social media. This is the district where President Trump votes. He told reporter she voted for Loomer. The only suspense here will be Frank el’ s margin of victory.
Mucarsel-Powell vs. Giménez: Themost competitive congressional race in Florida is in Miami-Dade’s 26th district, where first-term Democrat Debbie Mu cars el-Powell faces a serious challenge from outgoing Miami-Dade Mayor Carlos Giménez in a highly volatile contest that parallels the race for the White House. Mucarsel-Powell has more money, and Giménez has Trump’ s support.
Florida Supreme Court: Justice Carlos Muñiz, appointed by Gov. Ron De Santis last year, faces his first merit retention vote. The Sun Sentinel, Orlando Sentinel and Miami Herald have all recommenda “no” vote because Muñiz has shown excessive partisanship. Plus, in a Florida Bar poll of lawyers familiar with his work, he got the lowest scores of any justice in the past 40 years. We don’t expect Muñiz to be unseated. Losing a merit retention vote is unprecedented in state history. But we hope an underwhelming margins ends a needed reminder that citizens expect the highest standards of those appointed to the bench.
Florida Legislature: The 120- member Florida House figure store main Republican, with the GOP illogically holding a lopsided 72-46advantage in this deep purple state (two seats are vacant). The smaller Senate is adifferent story. Republicans have a23-17 advantage, but Democrats could win two competitive open seats in Miami-Dade’ s District 39 and Seminole County’ s District 9. However, the GOP’s heftier check book could dictate the outcome in both places.
Moderate Republicans: Bro ward’ s most hotly contested legislative race pits in cumbent Rep. Chip La Marca, the county’s only Republican legislator, against Democrat Linda Thompson Gonzalez, a retired U.S. Foreign Service officer and State Department assistant inspector general. The likable La Mar ca, a former county commissioner, is well known on Broward’s east side, but Democrats slightly out number Republicans in House District 93. Will enough Democrats split their tickets to re-elect him?
Palm Beach County’ s most hotly contested race is in House District 89, where Republican Rep. Mike Caruso faces are match against Democrat Jim B on fig l io. Two years ago, Caruso wo nthe first round by 32votes. This time, turnout will be much higher. Can the two moderate Republican incumbent s overcome the anti-Trump tide in Democrat-rich Bro ward and Palm Beach counties?
Flippable Miami-Dade seats: We’ll be watching whether first-term Democratic Rep. Cindy Polo can hold her seat in House District 103, which includes part of Miramar, or whether Republican Tom Fabric io can re-take a seat where no-party voters are the biggest voter bloc. No-party voters also out number either party in District 105, which similarly includes part of Miramar. There, Democrat Maureen P orr as is facing Republican David B or re roi nan open seat held by Republicans for years. Will independents swing left or right on state races?
Constitutional amendments: Of the six questions on the ballot, the Big Three are2, 3 and4. They would raise the minimum wage to $15 an hour over five years, allow all voters to vote in primaries, and add a requirement that future amendments must pass twice by 60%. Polls show the $15 minimum wage will be a squeaker. It’s polling at63% when 60% is needed. The open primary initiative — opposed by both major parties— appears to stand little chance of passage. We hope the same is true for Amendment 4, whichwould make it tough er and costlier for anyone other than the Republicans and lobbyists who rule Tallahassee to decide our future.
City Hall: Twenty Bro ward cities are holding municipal elections Tuesday. We expect Fort Lauderdale Mayor Dean T rant ali swill cruise to an easy victory, given his opponent’ s problems with paying his taxes. Hall andale Beach will likely reelect a long time mayor who beat charges of public corruption. Pompano Beach will decide whether to replace the entire city commission with as late of anti growth challenge rs. And Coconut Creek is likely setting some kind of record with 18 city charter amendments. If long lines appear anywhere in Bro ward, first check “the Creek .”
Election drama: In2018, vote counts and recounts were mar red by dysfunction in Bro ward and Palm Beach counties, and election supervisors Brenda Snipes and Susan Bucher lost their jobs. This election is the ultimate test for their replacements, Pete Anton ac ci in Bro ward and Wendy S ar tory Link in Palm Beach. Antonacci, an appointee of former Gov. Rick Scott, will leave in January and Link, an appointee of Gov. Ron De Santis, wona four-year termin the Democratic primary. Both appear positioned to deliver the election’ s results on election night.