Would DeSantis, Rubio and Scott yield in 2024 for Trump?
So Donald Trump will leave office in January, run for the Republican nomination in 2024, and all those Florida hopefuls will put aside their presidential aspirations?
Sure. One of those hopefuls,
Sen. Marco Rubio, said last week that Trump “will probably be the nominee” if he runs again. Don’ t presume that Rub io wishes for this scenario.
Ample evidence supports Rubio’s theory. Trump will retain a vast social media network –88 million followers on Twitter ,31 million on Facebook and 23 million on Instagram– through which he can appeal to his core cultists and keep trying to de legitimize the Biden presidency.
But that is conventional wisdom. As Trumps howed, conventional wisdom can be wrong. With Trump, it already maybe going wrong.
On Monday night, Rubio broke with most GOP senators by calling Joe Bid en “the president-elect.” Rubio said tha tin Georgia, where he is campaigning for Republican senators Kelly Loeffler and David Perdue. Their Jan .5 runoff will determine control of the Senate.
The GO P’ s desperation in Georgia under cuts Trump’s lie that he will win. If Republicans believed Trump, they would not be calling Georgia the party’s “firewall” against Democratic control of Washington.
In addition, the Washington Post reported this week on a conference call between big donors and Loeffler and Per due. They worry that humoring Trump for too long about a “rigged election” will galvanize Democrats and alien ate Republicans who dislike Trump.
By immediately announcing a 2024candidacy, Trump would be looking four years out. Recent history shows that it’s risky to look even two years out.
Ba rack O ba ma won the presidency in 2008. Two years later, Republicans retook the House. Two years later, Obama won a second term. Two years later, Republicans took back the Senate.
Trump wonin 2016. Two years later, Democrats retook the House. Two years later, Trump lost.
Rubio knows this. Sodo Rick Scott and Ron DeSantis. Allwere mentioned as possible Republican candidates in 2024 if Trump won re-election this year. They still want their name sin the mix.
That’s why Rubio is in Georgia. That’s why Scott wanted to lead the Republican Committee and also is in Georgia. Though the post doesn’t register with voters, Scott could use it to build insider support for a presidential bid.
Meanwhile, DeSantis can pitch himself as the governor who dispelled the idea of Florida as a swing state. Trump won the state by the biggest margin since George
W. Bush in2004.
Top ara phrase from “Hamilton,” Rubio, Scott and DeSantis arenot yet throwing away their shot at the presidency in2024– at least not privately. Neither are the several hundred other Republicans who want to court Trump’s base without turning off swing voters.
After all, Trump lost. He generated more opposition than support. He is only the fourth incumbent inthe last 100 years to lose after winning a first term.
That distinction will sting. Events outside of Trump’s control also could disrupt any revenge campaign.
Trump faces at least adozen civil suits or investigations. Based on news reports, inthe next four years or sooner, Trump faces payment deadline son $421 millionworth of loans that he has personally guaranteed. Another $900million inbusiness loans will come due.
To escape conviction on tax evasion and other federal charges,
Trump could par don himself. Doing so, however, would not protect him from state charges. To all but the cultists, any pardon would amoun tto admission of guilt. Would the GOP want that at the topof the ticket?
One might ask why Rubio, Scott and DeSantis might not want to show Trump loyalty, given his stacking of the courts and shredding of environmental protection. That’ s because Trump in spires no loyalty. He is for Trump, not the Republican Party.
For the Florida Three, passing on 2024 would mean waiting eight years. During that time, fresher faces will come along. Republicans whoare too young now will be older withmore recognition.
Out of office, Trump may remain influential. What he says, though, won’t matter anymore. Despite Trump’s denials, ratings for “The Apprentice” dropped by nearly two-thirds over its 14-year run. Rubio, Scott and DeSantis are hoping that the act finally gets old.