Texans can do better than Tua
Dolphins QB, along with draft picks, may simply not be enough to trade for Houston’s Watson
Let’s talk hypothetical situations, because that is all we’ve got right now.
If the Houston Texans can trade quarterback Deshaun Watson for arguably any player in the NFL with few exceptions — and that is indeed the case if he agrees to the final destination by dropping the trade clause in his less than a yearold mega-contact — why would the Texans swap their elite quarterback
for Dolphins quarterback Tua Tagovailoa?
This isn’t to trash Tagovailoa, because I believe in the young passer Miami picked at No. 5 in the 2020 NFL draft.
I advocated for the Dolphins to tank the entire 2019 season with the hopes they would draft Tagovailoa last year. During the final few weeks leading up to the draft, I pushed for the Dolphins to select him over Justin Herbert, despite his hip injury, because I’m certain Tagovailoa has “IT.”
Despite all Herbert’s statistical prowess from his rookie season, that’s my main concern about the rocket-armed Los Angeles Chargers standout.
Tagovailoa’s accuracy and pocket presence hint he can be the second coming of Drew Brees in time, maybe two or three seasons. (And be patient, because Brees didn’t start looking like a future Hall of Famer until his fourth year).
But Tagovailoa isn’t there now, and based on how he performed in his rookie season, he’ll enter the 2021 season in the third tier of starting quarterbacks.
His pedestrian statistics (too many to list) and lackluster quarterback rating (87.1) explain why he resides in the projects of NFL starting quarterbacks, right next to Dallas Cowboys backup and former Cincinnati Bengals starter Andy Dalton (87.3).
Adding weapons and gaining experience will certainly help Tagovailoa rise up the ranks, but if we’re going for full transparency: the Dolphins would be lucky if Tagovailoa entered the second tier of quarterbacks — becoming Ryan Tannehill-esque — at some point in the next two years.
And that gets me back to this important point, one that Dolphins fans have intentionally ignored while the NFL whispers about Watson’s attempts to escape Houston.
Why would Texans want to swap a top-five quarterback, a top-10 player in his prime for Tagovailoa, and a treasure chest of draft picks?
The Texans can do better, so much better,.
If Watson does indeed hold firm in his trade request and forces his way out of Houston for personal reasons, please understand that Miami’s proposal has to include something far more attractive than Tagovailoa.
If Miami wants in on the Watson discussion, it will more than likely cost this franchise Pro Bowl cornerback Xavien Howard, a Defensive Player of the Year candidate, and a treasure chest of draft picks (say two first-round selections), just to get Houston to the table.
Then, if the Dolphins do land Watson — and we’re talking hypothetical again — Dolphins general manager Chris Grier would then need to ship Tagovailoa to another team for draft picks or players, because keeping Tagovailoa behind a 25-year-old Watson doesn’t make sense. Are you following me? Confused?
Overwhelmed? Well, that happens when you’re talking about changing courses on a massive rebuild, which is exactly what the Dolphins would be doing if they decided to dance with Watson and his handlers, who are clearly trying to use Miami as leverage, just like every other agent does because of owner Steve Ross’ big-bidding reputation.
Adding Watson would scrap the rebuild and make Miami an immediate title contender if the defense remains a top-five unit, which would be hard if Howard and his 10 interceptions are gone as part of the trade package.
This isn’t to say Miami shouldn’t have a conversation with Houston about Watson.
They absolutely should! Elite quarterbacks under contract for the next five seasons never become available in their prime. The closest to it was Jay Cutler, who got traded for two first-round picks, a second-round selection
and journeyman quarterback Kyle Orton.
This is an unprecedented situation if the Texans cave into Watson’s trade demands, which are unlikely, but possible.
But let’s stop assuming that the Texans, who can likely trade Watson for any quarterback in the NFL with the exception of Kansas City’s Patrick Mahomes, Buffalo’s Josh Allen, Green Bay’s Aaron Rodgers, Seattle’s Russell Wilson, and maybe Baltimore’s Lamar Jackson, will pick Tagovailoa as the centerpiece of the trade package.
Houston can do much better if their goal is to add a starting quarterback as part of a Watson deal.
That’s not a knock on Tagovailoa, just an accurate reflection of where the 22-year-old is and how much work he’s got to do moving forward.
This doesn’t mean he won’t get to Watson’s level, where he’s viewed as one of the NFL’s elites. He’s just not there yet.