Dolphins should set market for Watson with offer
Pick the future that has the highest ceiling for the Miami Dolphins.
Option one: Pair Tua Tagovailoa with DeVonta Smith, the Heisman trophy winning receiver who is a threat to score every time he touches the ball, and Najee Harris, a bruising back who broke many of Alabama’s rushing records. And have that trio of former Crimson tide standouts carry an offense that compliments a top-10 defense for the next three seasons.
Then use a 2022 first-round pick, which will likely be in the late teens if the franchise stays on its present winning trajectory, and cap space over the next three seasons to fill voids until it’s time to sign Tagovailoa to a new deal.
Or would you prefer option two? The Dolphins adding Deshaun Watson, an upper-echelon quarterback who is trying to force his way out of Houston, and pairing him with Harris and the top-10 defense that’s carried over from last season.
In the Watson option the Dolphins would be sending this year’s No. 3 pick, which is the equivalent of two first-round picks on the draft value scale teams use, Tagovailoa, who was selected fifth overall in 2020, and the 2022 first-round pick to the Texans for Watson, a three-time Pro Bowler who is in his prime and under contract for the next five seasons.
Watson’s salary is affordable ($10.54 million) in 2021, which will allow the Dolphins to make a handful of moves to improve the roster this offseason. But after that Miami would be in salary cap jail because of the financial commitment associated with paying the NFL’s second-biggest contract.
Now that you’ve seen the two options, which has the best odds of Dolphins owner Steve Ross lifting a Lombardi Trophy by February of 2024?
That’s a three-year NFL cycle, which is the only time period an organization should operate in because of the mercurial nature of the sport.
How confident are you that Tagovailoa, Smith and Harris, who I view as the perfect fit for Miami’s No. 18 pick, turn the Dolphins into title contenders?
Are you certain that this Alabama trio along with Brian Flores’ defense can put the
Dolphins on the same tier as the Kansas City Chiefs and Buffalo Bills over the next two seasons? Because that is the goal.
If the answer to that question isn’t “absolutely,” or “without a doubt” then you should want the Dolphins to make Houston a strong offer to secure Watson’s services.
Things would be far more complicated if Houston doesn’t want Tagovailoa, and would prefer Miami throw in other assets — like star cornerback Xavien Howard or pick No. 18 — but the conversations should be had because landing Watson would likely turn the Dolphins into title contenders.
Watson’s bloated salary in the coming years would make it a challenge to keep upcoming free agents like tight end Mike Gesicki and linebacker Jerome Baker, or Christian Wilkins in 2023. But the financial strain of carrying Watson’s fully guaranteed $35 million salary in 2022, and $20 million in base salary and a $17 million roster bonus due in 2023 is not unmanageable.
The Seattle Seahawks, Green Bay Packers and Pittsburgh Steelers have managed to carry big quarterback salaries for a decade, yet remained title contenders most seasons. The Dolphins would have to hit on more draft picks than they miss and spend wisely in free agency, which has been a struggle for Miami over the years.
But much like what happened during the New England Patriots dynasty during the Tom Brady era, if you build a title contender, oftentimes good players will take less to get on broad. Especially in a city like Miami.
Watson’s addition to the Dolphins would make South Florida the hottest free-agent destination because Miami already has the location, the weather and no state income tax. And with Watson the Dolphins would possess one of the league’s premiere quarterbacks.
That’s why Watson is worth an offer that features three firstround picks.
If we make those picks actual players we’d see the true value of first-round selections.
Charles Harris, Minkah Fitzpatrick and Christian Wilkins were the Dolphins’ first-round picks from 2017 to 2019.
That’s one Pro Bowl talent (Fitzpatrick), one bust, and one decent starter.
Don’t like those three? Then how about Ja’Wuan James, DeVante Parker and Laremy Tunsil, Miami’s first-round picks from 2014 to 2016?
That’s one Pro Bowl talent (Tunsil) and two decent NFL starters.
Or we could simply factor in the three first-round picks Miami made last season, selecting Tagovailoa, left tackle Austin Jackson and cornerback Noah Igbinoghene.
The jury is still out on all three of last year’s rookies, but the 2020 season showed they are all replaceable parts because the Dolphins did just that and won games without them at times last season.
In fairness, Watson wouldn’t be a savior. Despite his career statistical year, he only led the Texans to four wins last season so there is no guarantee he alone could transform Miami into a title contender.
But the odds are far greater that Watson would lead Miami to its desired destination in the next three seasons than Tagovailoa can. That’s not a knock on Tagovailoa, who could become a top-10 quarterback in the next two to three seasons. It is just the truth.
And the sacrifice of three first-round picks, and cap space in 2022 and 2023 (when only 17 players are under contract) is worth making the Texans an offer Houston would find difficult to refuse. One that at least sets the bar high for other franchises interested in acquiring Watson.