Rams roll dice, gamble Stafford worth the risk

Gambling is against NFL rules, but the Rams rolled the dice Saturday night in betting their immediate future on quarterback Matthew Stafford, who has never won a playoff game.

Then again, risk is in their DNA. They were the club who took the decisive step toward Los Angeles. They spent a record sum on their $5 billion stadium. They traded up from No. 15 to No. 1 to take Jared Goff in 2016 — the quarterback they’re now discarding — and haven’t had a first-round pick since. They hired a 30-year-old coach.

So of course they made a splash move to get Stafford.

Now, it’s up to them to prove it was a smart one.

The Texans’ Deshaun Watson was out of their price range. They considered making a hard run at Aaron Rodgers, but the Packers were adamant they weren’t trading him.

Stafford was within reach, and Sean McVay was increasingly convinced this was the player who could lift his team to the next level — even though Stafford never actually experienced that level with the Lions.

So that’s the question, and one we’ll figure out in short order: Was the problem Stafford, or the team around him?

Stafford has two years left on his contract, and the Rams weren’t able to extend him beyond that. If he has a great 2021 season, that’s a double-edged sword, because the Rams will have to break the bank to extend him, and they’re making it clear with this move that he’s their future.

That was the case with cornerback Jalen Ramsey. The Rams didn’t get an extension on him when they made a trade with the Jaguars and subsequently signed him to a record-breaking deal.

Regardless, the news of the moment is the Rams were able to wriggle out of the handcuffs of Goff ’s contract and acquire a highly respectable quarterback looking to make the most of that talent in his second act. Is Stafford worth two first-round picks and a third? That will be hotly debated, especially if he doesn’t make an immediate and dramatic impact. But the Rams had to sweeten the deal enough that the Lions would take Goff ’s massive contract off their books.

The Rams upgraded at QB and they didn’t have to go to lengths they would deeply regret to get one. They didn’t have to, say, trade Aaron Donald.

Giving up two first-round picks is steep. But if you figure a Hall of Fame general manager hits on about 50% of selections in the opening round — if he gets two good starters out of four first-rounders that’s a respectable rate — then a pair of first-rounders isn’t too much ... as long as team is getting a franchise quarterback.

There’s no sure-fire formula to winning in the NFL.

Drew Brees will be a first-ballot Hall of Famer, and with him at quarterback, the Saints have tried for a decade to get back to the Super Bowl.

Rodgers, as great as he is, has been to one Super Bowl — a victory over the Steelers — and just lost in the NFC championship game for the second consecutive season.

In their four seasons under McVay, the Rams are tied for third in the league in wins, have had double-digit victories three times, got to the playoffs three times, and reached the Super Bowl. With Goff as their quarterback, it should be noted.

But now the spotlight swings to Stafford, who turns 33 on Super Bowl Sunday. He’s entering a phase in which a lot of good quarterbacks have caught their second wind.

The Rams took a risk. There was no other option.