Fishing for the answers: What is to be expected?
It would appear the improving Marlins remain in a period of patience, progress
Sitting here, attempting to sound the right tone, the precise vibe, the perfect prediction to frame the Miami Marlins as spring training starts, the notoriously humble-speaking Derek Jeter struck on one.
“I’m not one to make many guarantees,’’ the Marlins CEO said. “But I will guarantee one thing. Our attendance will be higher in 2021 than in it was in 2020.”
They’re expecting a 20% capacity at Marlins games this year —about 7,500 a game — compared to the pandemic-mandated zero last year. But, sure, for tradition’s sake, insert Marlins attendance joke here.
Jeter and majority owner Bruce Sherman spent about 40 minutes updating thoughts on their not-so-new ownership on the threshold of spring training with two p-words being in play — and neither alluded to last year’s playoff success.
Progress and patience. That’s where we’re still at with the Marlins. The big offseason question was why they didn’t spend money on a big bat for a lineup that needs one. The simple answer is they’re not there yet. They’re at least a year away — both competitively and financially.
The fact that’s even a topic tells of the progress. It also reminds this was the slow-cooking road Major League Baseball took South Florida once again in picking this ownership group. In Year 4, the mile marker has advanced but the questions haven’t changed about this team:
Who are they? What have they become entering the fourth year of this not-so-new ownership? Was last year’s postseason success a taste of what’s coming soon or a one-and-down feeling for a while?
Even after last year’s fun, even with Don Mattingly being named Manager of the Year, the Marlins aren’t there yet. They’re closer. They’re making right decisions. They’re so much clay still being molded, though.
The starting pitching? It’s there, if raw, as you saw in the playoffs. The everyday lineup? It’s not there. Veteran outfielders Starling Marte, Corey Dickerson and newly signed Adam Duval probably start this April. Maybe Marte is flanked by younger player as June turns to July.
Who knows? To understand why they didn’t go buy a big bat — Marcell Ozuna coming home would’ve been nice — look at the bullpen. It was rebuilt again this offseason, the way low-payroll teams do it it every year. This gets to the other side of the Marlins rebuild worth watching, because baseball is as much a financial rebuild for the Marlins as a roster one.
You could take the four lowest roster payrolls — Pittsburgh, Cleveland, Baltimore and the Marlins — and their $184 million combined doesn’t come close to the Los Angeles Dodgers ($237 million). Baseball remains a competitive mess this way.
The Marlins’ hope is a new, local television deal that sounds nearly done. They got a leagueworst $19 million from local TV in recent seasons. The league average is over $80 million. Can they get close to that? Will they?
Here’s why it matters: Jeter’s biggest success thus far is rebuilding the Marlins’ empty minorleague program. In previous owner Jeffrey Loria’s last year, a scout told me any player labeled a “prospect” was on the trading block. Loria traded tomorrow for one last year that failed.
Entering their fourth year, the Marlins minor-league systems ranks among baseball’s best by anyone doing such rankings. For example, former major-league executive Keith Law of The Athletic has ranked the Marlins system in the past four years: 28th, 28th, eighth and now fourth.
So the Marlins need money for a coming payroll to support sustained success. They’re getting there, too, in a manner you couldn’t say when Jeter and owner Bruce Sherman started after the 2017 season.
They’re also far enough away that manager Don Mattingly can carry the same motivational idea this year that he used to success last year: Everyone is picking his team last in the National League East.
“I love the organization we’re trying to build,’’ Sherman said. “I love winning, and I think we’re on the right path. We have to continue on the path.”
The Marlins’ decisions are paying off. But, well, you wanted a bat to help this lineup? That’s still in the come-back-next-year mode when the finances and lineup needs should be aligned.