Hyde: Understandable but underwhelming ’Fins trade
After Dolphins’ trade smoke clears, the feeling is underwhelming
That’s it?
That’s all?
The Dolphins essentially traded the No. 3 and a high, fourth-round pick in next month’s NFL draft for the No. 6 this year, a third-round pick in 2022 and a first-round pick in ... 2023?
That’s enough?
I didn’t expect the Dolphins to turn water into wine if they traded the No. 3 pick. But when you sift through the details and combine the two trades with San Francisco and Philadelphia, the feeling is one of being ... underwhelmed?
That’s the word. Not angered. Not confused. Certainly not misunderstanding why they traded down from the third pick. That always was a good option if they decided none of the available quarterbacks were significantly better than Tua Tagovailoa. And they apparently decided that. And that’s fine. But that’s it?
They lose that No. 3 and fourth-round pick this year — and get only the No. 6 pick to help this year.
I get what San Francisco did. They moved from 12th to third for the cost of two first-round picks to get a franchise quarterback. We’ll see if it works.
I get what Philadelphia did too. They’re in full rebuild, traded down to 12th and got an extra first-round draft pick next year in a manner the Dolphins did at the start of their reconstruction two years ago.
And while I get what the Dolphins did — trading down from No. 3 and probably landing the player they want anyway at No. 6 — the disconnect comes with the booty in return that’s ... well, again, underwhelming. It doesn’t fit with recent history.
No two years are alike. But consider this similar trade: Indianapolis sent the No. 3 pick in 2018 to the New York Jets for the same No. 6 pick and two secondround picks that year and another second-rounder the following year.
The Colts’ picks numbered: 6, 37, 49 that draft and 34 the following year.
Put that on the scale against what the Dolphins got for the third and 123rd picks this year: 6 and 156 (a fifth-round pick) this year, a third-round pick next year and a first-round pick in two years.
Jimmy Johnson discounted a pick’s present-day value by a round for every year you have to wait. So that third-round pick is a fourth-round pick and that firstround pick in 2023 translates into a third-round pick.
Consider this, too: The Dolphins sent their first-round pick in 2022 to Philadelphia and got San Francisco’s first-round pick that year. So the watch next year will be if they gain or lose spots in the draft based on them being better or worse than the 49ers.
That adds another curious aspect of this trade.
Who knows where that firstround pick will be in 2023, too? The 49ers were in the Super Bowl a year ago and assuming quarterback-friendly coach Kyle Shanahan finds his quarterback in the draft.
Shanahan, obviously, is moving on from quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo.
He made this trade with an eye on someone: Ohio State’s Justin Fields, North Dakota State’s Trey Lance or even Alabama’s Mac Jones. Or maybe he just wants some high-level competition for Garoppolo to find his quarterback?
The Dolphins are going the other route, the one where Tagovailoa is handed the job and this offseason is built around him. Maybe. Probably. But let’s remember this: They have five, first-round picks in the next three years. That would be enough to make a big swing for Houston quarterback Deshaun Watson (if his legal issues clear up) or possibly Russell Wilson if he comes free in Seattle.
Does General Manager Chris Grier have another big move coming?
Maybe this trade was all the market would bear for the No. 3 pick. Maybe quarterback-hungry teams like Carolina or Denver couldn’t be dragged into it. Maybe the quarterback options at No. 3 didn’t interest them.
The good news: The Dolphins will still get a top playmaker, too, depending on who falls to them at No. 6. LSU receiver Ja’Marr Chase? Florida tight end Kyle Pitts? Alabama’s DeVonta Smith or Jaylen Waddle?
It should be said this was all a bonus thanks to Grier trading tackle Laremy Tunsil to Houston on the edge of the 2019 season for a treasure chest of picks. I wasn’t jumping up and down about that trade, either. But who knew Houston would go from a playoff team in 2019 to the third-worst in the NFL last year?
The Dolphins drew a royal flush with this No. 3 pick. They essentially found a $100 bill on the ground, turned it into a $50 bill and two $20 bills and so many people are thinking they hit it right.
If they traded for what Indianapolis got, they’d have hit it rich. They instead got a third-round pick next year. and a first-rounder in two years.
That’s it.
That’s all.
The word is underwhelming.