Anticipation building for hiring boom this year

WASHINGTON — With hopes rising for a powerful rebound in hiring this year, Friday’s jobs report for March will provide crucial insight into whether those rosy expectations may prove true.

The most optimistic economists are predicting the government will report that as many as 1 million jobs were added in March — a blistering gain that would help recover a decent chunk of the 9.5 million jobs that remain lost to the pandemic. Still, the increase might not be quite that large: Overall, economists surveyed by data provider FactSet have forecast an increase of 615,000.

After a year of epic job losses, waves of coronavirus infections, and small-business closures, numerous trends are brightening the outlook. Consumer confidence in March reached its highest level since the pandemic intensified. Americans have increased their spending as the latest stimulus checks have been distributed. More states and cities are easing restrictions on restaurants, bars and indoor gatherings. Vaccinations are being increasingly administered, although new confirmed infections have risen from lower levels in recent weeks.

The $1,400 checks in President Joe Biden’s $1.9 trillion economic relief plan have increased consumer spending, according to Bank of America’s tracking of its debit and credit cards. Spending jumped 23% in the third week of March compared with pre-pandemic levels, the bank said.

Lower-income Americans responded with vigor, with spending among cardholders earning under $50,000 soaring 69% compared with pre-pandemic levels. More than 127 million of the stimulus payments, worth $325 billion, have been distributed.

The burgeoning economic activity is showing signs of translating into more jobs.

Karen Fichuk, CEO of Randstad North America, a recruiting firm, said the company is seeking to fill 38% more permanent jobs than it was at the end of last year. Demand for workers is particularly strong in manufacturing, information technology, logistics, and health care.

“We are definitely starting to see the economic recovery reach a turning point, including in the hardest hit industries, such as hospitality,” Fichuk said.