How does Spoelstra set Heat rotation?
How does Spoelstra set his squad up for optimal success in the playoffs?
They aren’t quite open auditions, because a playoff race does not offer that type of latitude, especially one as precarious as the Miami Heat’s seventh-place situation.
But with injuries and absences altering the Heat’s rotation in recent games, it has afforded coach Erik Spoelstra a finalweeks opportunity to see which pieces could prove most complementary to Jimmy Butler and Bam Adebayo.
While the uncertainty of Victor Oladipo’s balky right knee complicates conclusions, both last week’s three-game losing streak and this week’s two-game winning streak have opened eyes to the best fits, and, somewhat, the misfits, amid the need to solidify core truths.
For example, it wasn’t until the start of last season’s playoffs that Spoelstra settled on Jae Crowder as his starting power forward for the postseason. Now, a month from the end of the regular season, that decision apparently has been made with Trevor Ariza.
And if there was any doubts about Duncan Robinson’s uneven 2020 postseason and patchy play through stretches of this season, those assuredly have been alleviated by Robinson’s ongoing sizzle from the 3-point line that included Monday night’s 5 of 11 from beyond the arc in the 113-91 rout of the Houston Rockets.
Then there is the power rotation, where Meyers Leonard and Kelly Olynyk both faded in last season’s playoffs, the Heat’s lack of aggressive bulk exposed by the Los Angeles Lakers in the NBA Finals.
Now, with Dewayne Dedmon having muscled up in these home victories over the Brooklyn Nets and Rockets, a counter to Adebayo’s finesse has been found, even with uncertainly about whether Spoelstra also could consider it a complement with the two in the same lineups.
Where uncertainty remains, and where it needs to be resolved, is in the backcourt, and with more than the final starting wing spot alongside Butler and Robinson.
For his part, Oladipo could answer the
starting element if he is able, physically and stylistically, to pick up where he left off with his four-game Heat debut run that ended with his dunk misstep on April 8 against the Lakers.
If the playoff lineup winds up as Adebayo, Ariza, Butler, Robinson and Oladipo, then the question would come down to the remaining two rotation players in the backcourt. Goran Dragic will be one, with Kendrick Nunn’s late-season push and Tyler Herro’s late-season slide creating question about the other rotation guard.
If Oladipo is unable to go, or creates doubt to the degree that Spoelstra opts for stability, then it could be as simple as repeating last season’s playoff alteration and moving Dragic into the starting lineup. The Heat thrived with the approach in the 2020 postseason, and with strong showings in the back-to-back set against the Nets and Rockets, Dragic, at 34, has shown the physical wherewithal to be up to such an assignment.
But if Oladipo is a no-go or a slow-go, there also could be something to be said for starting Nunn and then coming off the bench with Dragic and Herro in tandem, with the two having worked well together, an alignment that eases playmaking responsibilities for Herro.
Factor in Andre Iguodala, 37, who also was impressive in playing the back-to-back set against the Nets and Rockets, and the Heat would appear to be set with a playoff eight deep of Butler, Adebayo, Robinson, Ariza, Dragic, Iguodala, Herro and Dedmon. From there, Oladipo would take it to nine, with Nunn available as the stand in should Oladipo come up lame or Herro continue to struggle.
Then again, it might not be that simple for a Pat Riley-driven franchise, considering the Heat president’s playoff-rotation maxim of, “You play seven, you use six and you trust five.”
The trust is in Butler, Adebayo, Ariza, Iguodala and Dragic. Of too much use to bypass is Robinson. And likely needed to be played is Dedmon. That’s your five, six and seven.
That means for Oladipo, Herro and Nunn, the open tryout will continue, with the compacted schedule and pandemic uncertainties likely to create ample opportunity over the final 14 games of the regular-season.
Otherwise, for the likes of Precious Achiuwa, KZ Okpala, Nemanja Bjelica, Gabe Vincent and Max Strus, there is the need to remain on call for shorthanded nights such as Monday, amid the reality that something compact, cohesive and consistent soon enough will have to be in place.