Weakened Grace heads toward Haiti
Threat to Florida decreases as path aims for Gulf
Tropical Depression Grace, downgraded from a tropical storm on Sunday afternoon, continued to churn in the Caribbean on a path toward earthquake-ravaged Haiti.
Nearly all of Florida was just outside the potential forecast track of Tropical Depression Grace — a small but fast-moving system clocking at 15 mph. Its maximum sustained winds were at 35 mph as of 8 p.m. Sunday, down from 40 mph at the 2 p.m. update.
Grace was expected to move over the mountainous terrain of Haiti and the Dominican Republic today, bringing at least 4 to 8 inches of rain to both countries — with some of their southern regions facing the possibility of up to 15 inches.
The potential for torrential rain, flooding and landslides in the region would be a particularly hard blow for Haiti. A 7.2-magnitude earthquake that struck there on Saturday has left more than 1,200 dead. The July 7 assassination of Haitian President Jovenel Moise has also left the impoverished island nation reeling with even more instability and uncertainty than usual.
Grace was expected to move over eastern Cuba by Tuesday. It could bring heavy rain to parts of Cuba, Florida and the Bahamas this week, according to the National Hurricane Center.
As of 8 p.m. Sunday, Grace was about 155 miles southeast of Santo Domingo in the Dominican Republic, where a tropical storm warning remained in effect, and 295 miles east-southeast of Port Au Prince, the Haitian capital.
The government of the Dominican Republic changed the tropical storm warning to a tropical storm watch near the southern Haitian border.
A tropical storm watch was in effect for the entire coast of Haiti and Dominican Republic.
A tropical storm warning was discontinued in Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands.
Grace’s potential path may follow Tropical Storm Fred across the mountains of the northern Caribbean, which could limit its chances of gaining strength.
Meanwhile, another storm system located about 175 miles north-northeast of Bermuda on Sunday was given moderate odds of forming into a tropical depression. But, by Tuesday, forecasters expect upper-level winds might cause wind shear that will hinder storm development.
The system could see gradual development by early next week as it moves south, according to the National Hurricane Center.
Like Fred, Grace could run the gauntlet of mountainous islands
on the northern Caribbean, which could drain a lot of its strength, making it difficult to say how much of a threat it could be to the United States. One model shows the storm reaching hurricane strength in three days, but the National Hurricane Center called that an “extreme outlier.”
“It is way, way, way too soon to speculate about potential impacts to the southeast coast of the United States,” said Jamie Rhome, a meteorologist at the National Hurricane Center. “That said, it’s August. It’s in the middle of hurricane season. So coastal residents anywhere in the Gulf, Florida and the southeastern United States should be paying really close attention to this system as it makes its way in the general proximity of the United States in the next five to seven days.”
Robert Molleda, warning coordination meteorologist for the National Weather Service in Miami, said the atmosphere ahead of the storm doesn’t appear particularly favorable for it to get very strong. But he said it’s still early, and forecasters will soon have a better sense of the storm’s likely path and strength.
“For right now, it does not pose any significant threat to South Florida at this time,” he said. “But we’re going to be watching it and see how it progresses over the next day or two.”
The storm faces obstacles including dry air and wind shear which can inhibit development.
“The tropical rainstorm is embedded within an area of drier air and has some African dust to its north and west which is working to slow development,” said AccuWeather Meteorologist Adam Douty.
The next named storm will be Henri.