Two tropical depressions expected to form — one of which potentially could head toward the US Gulf Coast
Two tropical depressions are forecast to emerge, but only one is thought to pose a potential threat to land.
Of the three active systems in the Atlantic, the one that is likely to form in the central Caribbean Sea late this week or weekend could potentially affect Mexico and the U.S. Gulf Coast, forecasters said. Another in the central Atlantic is expected to stay east of the U.S. mainland, and a third system close to Africa has low odds of developing.
The system forecast to become a tropical depression over the Caribbean is expected to head northwest, potentially coming near or across Mexico’s Yucatan peninsula, where Hurricane Grace made landfall nearly a week ago as a Category 1 hurricane.
Grace came ashore in Tulum, site of an ancient Mayan city that’s a popular day-trip destination for tourists. The storm tore the roofs off homes and forced residents to spend hours in shelters as the wind howled and knocked out power to thousands, according to the Associated Press.
The latest advisory from the National Hurricane Center says the Caribbean system will continue to move, ending up in the western Gulf of Mexico by Sunday. It could gain strength over the warm Gulf waters.
“Once it crosses into the Gulf of Mexico, the entirety of the Gulf Coast should keep an eye on it,” said National Weather Service meteorologist Sammy Hadi.
A westerly path would take it toward Mexico’s Gulf coast, while a northwesterly path would bring it closer to Texas and Louisiana.
It is too early to predict which path, if either, the system may take.
Its odds of developing over the next two days are at 50%, rising to 80% within the next five days, according to the National Hurricane Center.
A separate system in the central Atlantic, located about 700 miles southeast of Bermuda on Wednesday, was encountering some storm-shredding wind shear, but it has high odds of developing into a tropical depression within the next five days as the winds subside, forecasters said.
“This one looks like it will move eastward away from Bermuda and the United States,” Hadi said Wednesday.
Meanwhile, a third system in the far eastern Atlantic is producing thunderstorms and could develop some as it travels to west-northwest then to the north. It is expected to move at 10 to 15 mph. Experts say upperlevel winds could hinder its development by the weekend.
The forecast from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration calls for an above-average season, with seven to 10 Atlantic hurricanes.
“The most activity is usually early to mid-September, so we’re definitely in that upward climb toward the peak of [hurricane] season,” Hadi said. “The most important thing is to prepare even before a threat shows up.”
Henri was the third hurricane of the season, with Elsa and Grace preceding. Henri made landfall as a tropical storm Sunday in Westerly, R.I.
The next named storms to form would be Ida, Julian and Kate.