Gov. DeSantis’ war on school mask mandates highlights deep political schism over COVID-19.
COVID debate likely to play out in 2022 governor’s race
In the profoundly polarized world that has enveloped the response to COVID-19, school mask mandates are perhaps the clearest demonstration of the sharp dichotomy between Gov. Ron DeSantis and the Democrats hoping to deny him a second term next year and derail his presidential ambitions.
DeSantis’ school mask orders are being defied by school board members who control schools that educate more than half the state’s students, have been rejected by a circuit court judge and have generated howls of outrage from critics.
“It’s very volatile,” said Susan MacManus, a retired University of South Florida political scientist and a highly regarded authority on Florida politics. “There are so many balls in the air right now it’s almost overwhelming for voters to try to follow what’s going on.”
Not only isn’t DeSantis backing down — he said this week he’s certain his view will prevail in an appeals court — he’s escalating the fight.
DeSantis’ education commissioner moved Monday to withhold funds from two school boards — in Alachua and Broward counties — out of the 11 that have imposed school mask mandates. The idea is to punish school board members who voted for mask mandates by withholding their salaries.
The move may end up more politically symbolic than financial.
In Broward’s case, for example, the
funds DeSantis wants withheld amount to 0.016% of the school district’s annual revenues. And it might not amount to anything at all.
Keeping the political stakes high and the potential financial penalty low, U.S. Education Secretary Miguel Cardona wrote Tuesday afternoon on Twitter that his agency has “reminded district leaders that federal pandemic relief funds can be used to cover any financial penalties imposed on them by the state as a result of local efforts to protect the health & safety of those on school grounds.”
Mask politics
Masks in schools been one of the most highly politicized policies of the pandemic.
Standing tough could work for DeSantis with his party’s base by showing he’s resolute, unwilling to retreat. Democrats will use the same action to depict DeSantis as endangering the health of students — and try to portray him as someone responsible for cutting money to schools.
DeSantis, whose campaign sells “Don’t Fauci My Florida” T-shirts and drink koozies, and his aides say he is acting in the interests of preserving Floridians’ health, and their personal and economic freedom from government interference.
Mitch Ceasar, former decadeslong chairman of the Broward Democratic Party, said politics permeates the entire discussion.
“Nothing that happens these days is not political or politically inspired,” Ceasar said. “Anything related to the COVID issues is not any different.”
A Quinnipiac University Poll released last week found 98% of Florida Democrats support requiring students, teachers and staff to wear masks in schools. Just 24% of Florida Republicans support school mask mandates, and 72% are opposed.
DeSantis approach
DeSantis’ policy approaches appeal to the Republican voters who were brought into the party and energized by former President Donald Trump. If DeSantis keeps them happy, he’s likely to win reelection and move toward a 2024 presidential candidacy.
On COVID, his approach is exemplified by his opposition to school mask mandates, arguing they infringe on the rights of parents to decide what’s best for their children. He’s fought to block the mandates.
During news appearances around the state Monday to promote monoclonal antibody treatments for people who have tested positive for COVID-19, he downplayed the Leon County Circuit Court ruling that he exceeded his authority by issuing an executive order banning school districts from imposing mask mandates.
“It’ll be appealed. We’ll end up getting it back, and I think at the end of the day ultimately we’re just trying to stand with parents. A lot of parents, they know their kid in terms of health,” he said.
Though the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention has recommended students and teachers wear masks to prevent the spread of COVID — and vaccines haven’t yet been approved for children 12 and under — DeSantis said he’s concerned that mandates take away parents’ rights to make decisions about their children “and you don’t have any say in it.”
The governor also has argued that children are at relatively low risk of getting seriously ill or dying from COVID-19.
Proponents of mask mandates say they’re needed to ensure the health of everyone and protect the rights of those who could become infected.
Democrats
Congressman Charlie Crist and state Agriculture Commissioner Nikki Fried, both candidates for the 2022 Democratic gubernatorial nomination, are using DeSantis’ intense opposition to school mask mandates to draw a contrast with the reelection-seeking Republican governor.
Whoever becomes the nominee needs to fire up the Democratic base, hoping that enough energized Democrats could reverse their party’s decadeslong losing streak. (No Democrat has won an election for Florida governor since 1994. And of the 31 statewide contests from 2002 through 2020, Republicans have won 25; Democrats just six.)
After the Leon County Circuit Court judge ruled against DeSantis’ position Friday, Crist called it “a major victory in our fight against Governor DeSantis’ tyranny and reckless leadership.”
“Governor DeSantis has made it clear that he wants to put politics over keeping schools open and keeping our economy strong. But today’s ruling makes clear that he’s overstepped his authority,” Crist said in a written statement.
On Tuesday, Crist asked Cardona to add Florida to the federal education agency’s investigation into whether state mask mandate bans violate the civil rights of students with disabilities.
Fried said the judge’s ruling “is a win for students, parents, teachers, and democracy.”
“Allowing school districts to require masks isn’t about politics. It’s about keeping
our children safe and trusting local officials to make the right decisions when it comes to the health and safety of our kids,” she said in an email to supporters.
Polarization
The lack of common ground is emblematic of 21st century politics. Leaders appeal to their political bases and are often unwilling to give any ground and completely reject what the other side is offering.
For COVID-19, that can determine policy choices that affect the number of Floridians who become seriously ill or die.
Politically, the contrasting approaches serve each camp’s political interest — at least for now.
“They’re both operating on the premise that the key to winning 2022 is to make sure your base comes out to vote, and that’s true for both sides,” MacManus said.
Trump’s victory in 2016, his winning Florida in both 2016 and 2020, and his falling just short of reelection last year exemplify the way elections are won in the current era: More by energizing and turning out a party’s partisans and less by trying to convert supposed moderate swing voters in the center.
No matter what Crist or Fried do, they’re unlikely to persuade many people who love DeSantis and Trump to vote for a Democrat for governor next year. No matter what DeSantis does, he’s not likely to attract too many die-hard Democrats.
That’s especially true, MacManus and other political analysts have said, if COVID ebbs and flows, and it there isn’t a crisis similar to this summer’s delta-fueled surge taking place when voters go to the polls in November 2022.
Could be swayed
MacManus said she’s watching a potentially critical group of voters: suburban mothers.
It’s a group that has the potential to swing elections in Florida — where statewide elections are often won by low margins. Seven statewide elections in the decade starting with 2012 were decided by less than 1.2% of the vote. In 2018, DeSantis won by 0.4% of the vote.
And it’s a group that has experienced outsized upheaval since the last election, including juggling working from home while often having the greatest responsibility for getting their children educated and finding good child care,” she said.
“The lives of suburban women have become more complex in the COVID period,” MacManus said. “They’re struggling now with figuring out what’s going to happen in the long term.”
MacManus said suburban women “tend to vote the interests of their kids.” That could pose a danger to DeSantis if COVID is causing illness and deaths among Florida schoolchildren as the election approaches.
If DeSantis prevails in court, and COVID in schools becomes a problem, that could change the calculus, Ceasar said.
“If kids are in school without masks and the infection rate rises dramatically, I think parents will have a very long memory politically,” Ceasar said. “That’s the political danger for him, if more kids get sick because of no masks.”