Study calls for strict limits on oil, coal to curb warming
Researchers who estimate how much of the world’s coal, oil and natural gas reserves should be left unburned to slow the increase in climate-changing gases in the atmosphere say even more of these fossil fuels should be left in the ground.
The researchers, from University College London, say earlier estimates, published in 2015, had to be updated.
They now calculate that nearly 60% of the world’s oil and gas reserves and 90% of the coal reserves need to stay in the ground by 2050 to meet climate goals of the Paris Climate Agreement.
Those limits would give the world a 50-50 chance of limiting global warming to 2.7 degrees Fahrenheit compared to pre-industrial times, according to their study last week in the journal Nature.
“We believe on new paper adds further weight to recent research that indicates the global oil and fossil methane gas production needs to peak now,” said
Dan Welsby, lead author and an energy and environment researcher at the University College London. “We found that global production needs decline at an average annual rate of around 3 percent (through) 2050.”
It’s been long known that emissions from burning fuels for electricity, transportation and other uses are the chief driver of climate change, pulling long-buried carbon in fossil fuels out of the ground and depositing that carbon into the atmosphere as carbon dioxide. Scientists say such heat-trapping gases are causing sea-level rise and extreme weather events around the world.
The last study like this was several months before world leaders drafted the 2015 Paris accord and pledged to reduce warming to well below 3.6 degrees Fahrenheit.
That study, also conducted by University College London scientists, looked at how much countries would have to limit fossil fuel emissions to hold warming to 3.6 degrees Fahrenheit. They found that a third of oil reserves, half of gas reserves and 80% of coal reserves would need to stay in the ground.
Emissions reductions proposed in this latest study dramatically increase the amount of fossil fuels that would need to stay in the ground to meet Paris targets.
The study comes less than a month after the International Panel on Climate Change reported that the world will likely cross the 2.7-degree Fahrenheit warming threshold in the 2030s under five scenarios of emissions reduction. Scientific consensus is that any warming past 2.7 degrees Fahrenheit could result in catastrophic impacts, such as loss of species.
While acknowledging the IPCC report’s grim outlook, Welsby said he wanted to model a scenario that would limit the worst impacts of climate change.
Dr. Philip J. Landrigan, editor-in-chief of the Annals of Global Health, said the paper underscores how important government and corporate policy are in limiting warming.