Tropical system not likely to develop off East Coast

An area of low pressure in the northeastern Caribbean is forecast to move northwest for the next few days in the general direction of Florida and the U.S. East Coast.

The chances of it developing into a tropical system remain very slim due to the presence of strong wind shear, according to the National Hurricane Center, but it may bring downpours to the southeastern U.S.

There’s still a 10% chance the system about 100 miles northeast of the Bahamas could slowly develop, but that window is narrow. It is expected to be absorbed by a slow-moving frontal system moving west to east later this week, the hurricane center said Tuesday.

The rain that the low-pressure area is forecast to generate is expected to bypass most of southern and eastern Florida, with the exception of the Jacksonville area.

Moisture over the Gulf of Mexico is expected to interact with the low-pressure area, bringing rain to much of the Florida Panhandle, according to an AccuWeather forecast.

Eric Bunker, a meteorologist at the National Weather Service in Tallahassee, said though the Panhandle is not impacted by the system near the Bahamas, the region is overall expected to receive three to four inches of rain through Wednesday evening from an upper level trough that has been remained in the central Gulf Coast. Some areas in the Panhandle and Big Bend Coast are expected to see six to eight inches through Wednesday.

Strong wind shear, currently present over the Caribbean, hinders tropical systems from forming. However, wind shear in the area is expected to decline in a couple of days, which would make the Caribbean much more conducive for storm development as the season continues, experts said.

October is one of the most active months for tropical activity in the Atlantic, particularly Florida.

If one more named storm forms this season — Wanda — experts say 2021 will rank third in the record books for the number of named storms generated in one hurricane season.

“Florida has been hit by about a dozen major hurricanes in the month of October since records began in 1851, which is more than any other state,” AccuWeather reported.

No additional tropical activity is forecast in the next five days, according to the hurricane center.