A formula for a peaceful transition in Venezuela
The elections on Nov. 20, 2021, show that Nicolás Maduro maintains a strong grip over Venezuela’s political institutions. Current
U.S. targeted sanctions have not stopped Maduro’s regime from suppressing dissent, violating human rights, and holding onto power illegitimately. It is time to explore a new approach to secure Venezuela’s transition to democracy. The Biden administration should remove targeted sanctions and offer immunity to Maduro and top officials in exchange for a peaceful transition of power.
The crisis in Venezuela began with the opposition party’s refusal to recognize Maduro as the acting president after the 2018 presidential elections. The conflict continues with Maduro’s claims to be the legitimate president of Venezuela. Although major powers like the United States and the European Union acknowledge Juan Guaidó as the president, 14 of 34 Organization of American States members still recognize Maduro as the legitimate leader.
Venezuela currently faces a severe humanitarian crisis with widespread food and medicine shortages. Millions have fled the country. In addition to recognizing Guaidó as the legitimate president, U.S. policy includes targeted sanctions against top officials of Maduro’s regime and public condemnation of its human rights abuses. Nonetheless, Maduro’s regime remains in place.
So, what can be done? New initiatives must encourage the peaceful transition of power. Providing strong incentives is necessary to pave the way for Maduro’s departure. Lifting the current sanctions and guaranteeing immunity could induce Maduro’s regime to voluntarily leave the country. Negotiating a successful exit plan for Maduro and his officials would be the first step for Venezuela’s transition back to democracy.
A subsequent call for free and fair elections will provide legitimacy to the incoming government. Regional institutions like the Organization of American States can leverage their resources to send electoral observation missions to Venezuela. Elections will restore people’s faith in the country’s democratic institutions and guarantee the legitimacy and international recognition of chosen leaders.
The United States and other major powers like China and Russia must exercise restraint and allow for this issue to be resolved by Venezuelans. International cooperation will strengthen U.S. credibility in the hemisphere. The U.S. can reposition itself as a champion of democracy and nonintervention by using its leverage to help achieve a lasting solution to the Venezuelan crisis.
There are those who go further, arguing that the United States should remove sanctions in exchange for dialogue between Maduro’s regime and the opposition party, but this would be ineffective. Previous talks failed to deliver results. Lifting sanctions proved too small of an incentive to bring parties to the table. In the past, Maduro’s regime left the negotiations without reaching any agreement. In October 2021, the regime halted negotiations in Mexico in response to the United States extradition of Alex Saab, who according to Maduro was on a diplomatic mission to Iran. An effective incentive package must outweigh the benefits of Maduro’s regime staying in power. Anything short of the complete removal of targeted sanctions and guaranteed immunity for Maduro and top officials would fail to induce the regime to relinquish power, prolonging the dire situation in Venezuela.
Twenty-two years of failed policy and diplomacy have been enough. It is time to replace the darkness engulfing Venezuelans with the light of new democratic institutions and practices. In a state overrun by strife, peace will come with a solution to oust Maduro’s regime and revoke his illegitimate assertion of power. A transition to democracy will end the suppression of dissent, restore human rights, and end violence in Venezuela. A transition is possible with the removal of targeted sanctions and immunity for Maduro’s regime. A transition to democracy is within reach if the United States considers a new approach.