US mulls warning Ukraine of possible invasion in real time
WASHINGTON — The Pentagon is working on a plan to provide Ukraine with battlefield intelligence that could help the country more quickly respond to a possible Russian invasion, senior administration officials said.
The assistance, if approved by President Joe Biden, is sure to irk Russia, which has portrayed any U.S. military aid to Ukraine as provocative.
Some of that viewpoint by Kremlin was on display Thursday as Russian President Vladimir Putin delivered sharp criticism of the West for rising military tensions in Eastern Europe, saying that Moscow was not to blame for talk of “war, war, war” because it was merely defending historically Russian territories.
He said that the Biden administration had agreed to hold talks with Russia on Moscow’s security concerns starting in January, calling it a positive sign, but added that Russia would expect quick answers on its demands.
“It was the United States that came with its missiles to our home, to the doorstep of our home,” he said, referring to NATO expansion. “And you demand from me some guarantees. You should give us guarantees. You! And right away, right now.”
Putin’s comments, at a traditional year-end news conference, were being closely watched after a drumbeat of warnings from Moscow about a potential escalation of military conflict in Ukraine. Two days earlier, Putin told a gathering of security officials that he was ready to take “military technical measures,” a reference to a possible use of force, if Russia’s security requests went unmet.
But as more than 100,000 Russian troops mass at the Ukrainian border, the Biden administration is seeking to project support for the former Soviet republic’s independence from Moscow and its territorial integrity.
The United States and its allies have warned Putin that an invasion would bring both economic pain for his country, in the form of sanctions, and military losses.
Officials in the Biden administration have moved cautiously to avoid escalating the situation, even as they consider ways to better assist Ukraine and deter Russia.
A small Pentagon team recently visited Ukraine to evaluate the country’s air defense needs, John Kirby, the chief Pentagon spokesperson, said Monday. On Tuesday, Karen Donfried, the State Department’s top diplomat for Europe, told reporters that the United States would increase its military assistance to Ukraine if Russia invaded.
The United States has been supplying Ukraine with anti-tank guided missiles called Javelins since 2018; Biden authorized an additional Javelin
delivery this fall as part of a $60 million military aid package.
The list of ideas being drawn up at the Pentagon, the State Department and the White House include redirecting to Ukraine helicopters and other military equipment once allocated for the Afghan military, officials said.
But the proposal at the Pentagon for “actionable” intelligence is potentially more significant, two U.S. officials said. The information would include images of whether Russian troops were moving to cross the border. Such information, if shared in time, could enable the Ukrainian military to head off an attack.
One potential problem with providing actionable intelligence, U.S. officials acknowledge, is that it could lead Ukraine to strike first — the sort of scenario Western officials believe Putin has been trying to sell to the Russian public.
He has continuously painted the Ukrainian government as the aggressor, backed by the West. But if Russian tanks are moving over the border, and Ukraine targets them, it will be hard for Putin to make that argument.