Welcome home
As Trump’s presidency came to an end on Jan. 20, two weeks after his supporters failed in their attempt to overturn the election results, he arrived at his adopted home in Palm Beach Count as a triumphant warrior, not as a loser.
Crowds along the motorcade cheered the aboutto-be-former president as he rode from Palm Beach International Airport to his Mar-a-Lago Club in Palm Beach. Though Palm Beach County was solidly Democratic in the 2020 election, Trump headquartered himself in Florida, a state he won. He did much better in Florida in 2020 than in 2016.
Trump bought and renovated Mar-a-Lago long before he became president, and in 2019 he declared it was officially his residence after he decided he no longer wanted to call his native New York home. Born in Queens, Trump built an image of himself as a savvy Manhattan real estate mogul.
Since then, Budd said, “he may have lost a little support, but not much.” National polling from YouGov found that Trump was viewed favorably by 83% of Republicans, and unfavorably by 12% on Dec. 31, 2021. That’s almost the same as the 85%-15% split on Jan. 8.
Among Democrats, Trump was viewed favorably by 7% and unfavorably by 90% on Dec. 31, virtually the same as the 5% approval and 94% disapproval on Jan. 8.
A small dent
In the immediate aftermath of the insurrection, there was a burst of activity among Florida Republicans leaving the party. Within weeks, thousands of
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South Florida Republicans changed their voter registrations. Though noticeable, it was a small fraction of the party’s registered voters. Six months after the insurrection, the slight erosion had stopped. And by year’s end, Republican voter registrations in Florida outnumbered Democrats for the first time in modern history.
And many people energized to get involved in politics because of their support for Trump remained energized. Club 45 USA has continued to draw large crowds, including people from outside Palm Beach County. The club hit capacity for its November meeting, selling 1,600 tickets for a night with former House Speaker Newt Gingrich. It’s sold about 1,000 tickets for the January meeting with Fox News contributor Joe Concha.
“They’re latched on so tight right now and they’re going down a rabbit hole,” said Grace Carrington, the Democratic state committeewoman for Broward County. “They’re in so deep they cannot get out. I think a lot of them are lost, unfortunately.”
It’s not all completely positive from the perspective of Trump supporters. Out of office he isn’t the same draw as when he was a candidate and president. From 2016 through 2020 he routinely drew enormous crowds to his massive campaign rallies.
Trump’s paid appearances last month at the FLA Live Arena in Sunrise and the Amway Center in Orlando — conversations with former Fox News host Bill O’Reilly — weren’t close to sellouts. O’Reilly touted the success of the Sunrise show, saying it grossed $2 million, but sections of the arena were curtained off and people who bought seats higher up in the area were moved to lower areas.
Post-presidency
Trump has spent much of the last year attempting to recast what happened in the 2020 election and on Jan. 6. He’s also touted candidates who echo his claims that the 2020 election was stolen and opposed those who crossed him by supporting his impeachment after the insurrection.
There isn’t evidence the election was stolen, even though 75% of Republicans surveyed in an NPR/PBS NewsHour/Marist College poll conducted in late last year believe Trump has a legitimate claim that there were “real cases of fraud that changed the results.”
Republican elections officials have said there was no widespread fraud. Federal judges appointed by Trump issued multiple opinions finding there was no basis to the claims of irregularities. And Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell, R-Ky., who eagerly championed everything Trump wanted in the last four years, said Biden was the clear, legitimate winner. So did the late Senate Majority Leader Bob Dole, R-Kansas, who was the only living former Republican presidential candidate who endorsed Trump in 2016.
And an Associated Press examination of every potential case of voter fraud in the six battleground states disputed by Trump found fewer than 475 instances, a number so small it would have made no difference.
No internal opposition
Nationally, there are a handful of Republicans — most prominently U.S. Reps. Liz Cheney of Wyoming and Adam Kinzinger of Illinois — willing to publicly take on Trump.
There are no such voices in Florida.
Zelden said Trump is such a dominant force among Florida Republican primary voters that the backlash from the most minimal opposition to him would translate into defeat.
Stipanovich was more direct: “Because of his dominance among hardcore Republican voters who are the primary voters, he still has elected officials by the throat. They cannot cross him without drawing a primary opponent and probably be removed from office.”
Stipanovich said people expect “the vast majority of politicians to be self-serving careerists,” but Republican elected officials who support Trump are worse. “They are cowards.”
He said they either choose not to think about what they are doing, or convince themselves what they’re doing is right.
All in for Trump
The most prominent leader in Florida, DeSantis, is solidly in the Trump camp.
“DeSantis is clearly a Trump guy. It was Trump’s endorsement that obviously changed that election,” Budd said. “People trust DeSantis to be, I would say from the perspective of an America First candidate, along the same lines as Trump was.”
State Sen. Shevrin Jones said DeSantis has taken the Trump approach and “amped it up. People feed into it.” He sees it continuing “as long as he sees the response is favorable.” Jones, a Democrat who represents South Broward and MiamiDade counties, was an early, strong supporter of Biden.
DeSantis emulates Trump’s approach in choosing the issues he highlights, such as his assertion that so-called critical race theory is a threat, which helps activate Trump’s MAGA voters.
Zelden said DeSantis needs the Trump base. “He [DeSantis] is running for president. And if you want to win on the national level, you have to get through the Republican primaries. And there you have people who have bought into the Trump legacy,” Zelden said.
Rubio’s status
A year ago, Rubio was not among the handful of Senate Republicans who voted to challenge electoral votes from states Trump disputed, and some wondered if Rubio’s re-election hopes would flounder. Conservatives were looking for a primary challenger and speculation swirled around a potential Ivanka Trump challenge to him in the 2022 primary.
The threat to Rubio from within the Republican
Party eased in April with a “Complete and Total Endorsement” from Trump, who was pleased that Rubio, during his service as acting chairman of the Senate Intelligence Committee, didn’t suggest Trump was involved in Russia’s meddling in the 2016 presidential campaign.
“Marco has been a tireless advocate for the people of Florida,” Trump said in a statement issued by his Save America political organization. “Marco will never let the great people of Florida, or our Country, down!”
Future
Carrington said Trump has remained adept at keeping his supporters engaged.
“I’m not going to belittle people and say they’re part of a cult or anything of that nature. He is a good salesman. And he really has convinced a lot of people that there are the takers and the makers. We are so divided, and he continues to make the fissure wider and wider,” she said. “Yeah, they took away his Twitter handle, but he is finding a way to keep reaching these people and retain such great control that it is making things worse.”
Stipanovich doesn’t see that changing for the foreseeable future.
“The only thing that these folks [politicians] will respond to is defeat at the polls. They’re totally motivated by fear. As long as it is safe to do what they are doing, they will do it,” Stipanovich said. “It will take some people being thrown out of office by outraged voters for people to start moderating and being a little more principled. But at this point in time there’s no indication that that day in Florida is anywhere close.”
Budd doesn’t see Trump’s influence waning. “He stared a movement, and he’s always going to be recognized as the head of the movement. I just don’t think that’s going to change.”