Balloon flap pops hole in Xi’s lofty image as leader
The Chinese balloon that bumbled its way across the United States has launched a thousand questions about its real intent.
But it is also focusing the world’s attention on the prospect that the communications and control within Chinese leader Xi Jinping’s government and his vaunted security apparatus may be less coherent — or even less functional — than the image he so confidently projects.
The stakes today are high. Relations between Washington and Beijing have frayed, and competition between the two sides has intensified, fueling fears that the wrong move could spark an accidental confrontation.
The United States says the vessel was a “high-altitude surveillance balloon.” China maintains it was a civilian airship that had flown off course while gathering meteorological data. Whether the inflatable craft was there by mistake or a brazen military stunt, its emergence raises questions about how China is navigating its growing position as a global power.
“What has been particularly damaging for China, both internationally and domestically, are the questions this raises about competence and how they’re reinforcing doubts about Xi Jinping’s leadership,” said Susan Shirk, a former deputy assistant secretary of state during the Clinton administration and author of a recent book, “Overreach: How China Derailed Its Peaceful Rise.”
It’s unclear to what degree the incident was avoidable, but it comes at a time when Xi is thought to be at the peak of his powers after having shattered norms last year by securing a third term and making national security a cornerstone of his rule.
With Secretary of State Antony Blinken canceling his trip to Beijing, Xi missed an opportunity to push back against the mounting pressure Washington is applying on China through security ties with partners across Asia and restrictions on semiconductor technology. That would have allowed Xi to devote more attention to pressing domestic matters such as reviving China’s weakened economy.
The balloon incident follows other apparent miscalculations, including the haphazard unwinding of his, at times, suffocating “zero COVID” measures after widespread protests, and his agreeing to a “no limits” partnership with Russia only weeks before the Feb. 24 invasion of Ukraine.
“It’s really quite a paradox if you think about it, because it’s the beginning of his third term,” Shirk added. “He should be at the high point. And yet we see all of this negative feedback.”
Questions about Xi’s judgment and that of his military and intelligence services now cloud assessments about how China would handle another crisis in a far more dangerous setting such as over the heavily militarized Taiwan Strait.
That unpredictability appears to have extended to China’s most recent response to the balloon, which was shot down by a U.S. fighter jet Saturday. After first expressing regret for the balloon’s emergence, China hardened its stance Monday.
Xie Feng, a vice foreign minister, lodged a protest with the U.S. Embassy in Beijing, chastising the U.S. for destroying the vessel and accusing Washington of reversing the progress made in improving relations after Xi and President Joe Biden met face-to-face in November in Indonesia.
“China resolutely opposes and strongly protests this, and urges the United States not to take further actions that harm China’s interests, and not to escalate or expand the tension,” the Foreign Ministry said in a statement.
Regardless of Beijing’s protests, Navy divers are scouring the waters off South Carolina to recover the balloon’s parts.
For China, the ill-timed flight of the craft and its costly discovery suggests a lack of coordination between the military and other organs of the government, analysts say.
“It shows the national security coordination process to prevent incidents like this are not yet functional in the way that they need to be,” said Drew Thompson, a visiting senior research fellow at the Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy at the National University of Singapore, and a former U.S. defense official.
Thompson said it was possible China’s military orchestrated the flap, as it would stand to benefit from heightened tension with the United States. Surveillance balloons are thought to be operated by the People’s Liberation Army Rocket Force, which is also responsible for China’s nuclear and conventional missile arsenal.
Taiwan’s military confirmed last year that Chinese balloons that were spotted floating above the self-governing island were operated by the rocket force, although it said the balloons were likely being used to observe the weather.