La Niña could develop this year
Forecasters are predicting that the El Niño, which has brought wet cloudy weather to South Florida this winter, will weaken in the coming months, bringing the likelihood of drier weather.
“But it’s not over yet,” said one meteorologist.
So far, it’s been a classic El Niño winter in our region. A hot Pacific Ocean has caused the subtropical jet stream to shift south, aiming moist Pacific air our way, resulting in a relatively wet, windy and stormy winter.
In December, the entirety of South Florida was wet, with some areas getting almost twice the normal amount of rainfall for the month, according to data from the South Florida Water Management District website. Four straight days of rain in mid-December boosted numbers. The Keys and Everglades had almost three times the normal amount of December rain.
Since Oct. 1, Broward County has exceeded the winter dry season rainfall average by 3 inches.
Though February has a smidge dryer than normal, with just over half an inch of rain in the region, Todd Kimberlain, lead meteorologist at the SFWMD, said that “models are telling us that there could be a bigger (rain) event out there around the 18th to the 20th of February.”
“Right now the subtropical jet stream is enhanced, and there have been heavy rains in California. Two weeks ago it was enhanced and Texas and Louisiana got considerable rain — we’re talking about 15, 16 inches,” Kimberlain said. “We haven’t seen any really impressive rains since November and December,
but we’re not done yet. There very well could be another event out there.”
Two months of gloomy skies
If this winter has seemed particularly gloomy for the Sunshine State, your eyes do not deceive you.
“It’s been cloudier than our typical winter so far,” said National Weather Service meteorologist Robert Molleda.
Climatologist Brian Brettschneider posted some December to January cloud cover maps on social media site X. They show that South Florida and the eastern Great Lakes region were the cloudiest places in North America from December through January.
The incessant clouds have kept temperatures moderate — they often blocked bright sunshine during the day, and trapped atmospheric warmth in at night.
“That’s what we’ve seen in past El Niño events, too,” Molleda said. “You don’t get as much in the way of cold temps, but the cloudy days limit your high temperatures.”
The high-altitude subtropical jet stream winds may have kept the severe cold out as well. “We haven’t had any really strong cold continental or even arctic air reach Florida,” Molleda said.