Sun Sentinel Palm Beach Edition
‘Normal’ hurricane season predicted
Tropical depression forms as outlook sees 10 to 16 storms
A tropical storm warning was issued for South Carolina just hours after federal forecasters predicted a “near normal” hurricane season of four to eight hurricanes this year.
The forecast, released Friday by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, calls for one to four of these storms to be major hurricanes, with winds of at least 111 miles per hour. The prediction is roughly in line with private and academic hurricane season forecasts that have come out in the past month or so.
As they issued the forecast, NOAA officials said we may be entering a decades-long era of fewer hurricanes, comparable to the period from 1971 to 1994.
The Atlantic hurricane season officially starts Wednesday and runs to the end of November, but tropical weather got a head start this year: Hurricane Alex made an unseasonable debut in January over the far eastern Atlantic.
On Friday, the National Hurricane Center said an area of low pressure between Bermuda and the Bahamas became a tropical depression. As of 8 p.m., the storm was 400 miles southeast of Charleston, S.C., and had winds of 35 miles per hour. A tropical storm warning was issued for the South Carolina coast. The storm poses no threat to Florida.
The NOAA prediction called for a total of 10 to 16 storms of tropical strength or greater, that is with winds of at least 39 miles per hour. But federal scientists said this season is particularly difficult to predict, with several factors coming into play. Among these are the extent to which the warming of the Pacific Ocean called El Niño will dissipate and the timing and strength of its opposite, called La Niña, which tends to increase the number and intensity of storms.
“This is a more challenging hurricane season outlook than most because it’s difficult to determine whether there will be reinforcing or competing climate influences on tropical storm development,” said Gerry Bell, lead seasonal hurricane forecaster with NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center. “However, a nearnormal prediction for this season suggests we could see more hurricane activity than we’ve seen in the last three years, which were below normal.”
Since 1995, we have been in a high-activity era for hurricanes, largely due to a warming of the Atlantic Ocean that alternates with cool periods. During a warm period, which we have been in for more than 20 years, the warmth fuels hurricanes. But over the past three years, which have seen weaker hurricane seasons, the ocean has been cooler, leading scientists to think the Atlantic is making its period shift to two or more decades of cooler water.
NOAA forecasters said it’s too soon to say whether the era of low activity has begun, a determination that may not be made definitely until we’re well into that period.
“There’s uncertainty whether the high-activity era of Atlantic hurricanes has ended,” said NOAA administrator Kathryn Sullivan. “If this shift proves to be more than short-lived, if it’s not just a temporary blip, then it could be signaling the arrival of a low-activity era for Atlantic hurricanes.”
But even a low-activity season can bring catastrophic storms.
“1992 I would remind you was also Hurricane Andrew,” Sullivan said. “That was a very low year. I think that was about the only storm that formed and it actually devastated a very wide swath of South Florida.”
In a separate weather matter on Friday, the National Weather Service released its prediction for the rainy season, which coincides roughly with hurricane season. It forecast near-to-above-normal rainfall and temperatures that would likely be one degree hotter than normal.