Sun Sentinel Palm Beach Edition
Trump bombast seen as ballast
GOP fears woes will drag down Senate, House
WASHINGTON — Republicans in Congress for months withstood the political turmoil of Donald Trump at the top of their ticket, confident of holding their majorities in the House and Senate despite his unconventional candidacy.
And for a while it appeared that with smart campaigns and strong fundraising their optimism was justified.
But Republicans are increasingly worried now that the race has spun beyond their control. They’re issuing pessimistic warnings that Trump has become such down-ballot drag that the election could flip control of the Senate to Democrats and shrink the GOP margin in the House.
It’s not just Trump’s behavior — including allegations of past sexual assault and his refusal to say he would accept the Nov. 8 election outcome — that is making Republican candidates worry.
Democrats have seized the opening, so confident as Hillary Clinton widens her presidential lead that her super political action committee has started spending campaign cash in key Senate battlegrounds, with more being considered for the House races.
Republican operatives in congressional races see no easy way to reverse the slide in the time remaining. Nonpartisan analysts agree.
“I used to think there was a narrow path for them to hold on by their fingernails, but I no longer believe that’s true,” said Jennifer Duffy, who analyzes races for the nonpartisan Cook Political Report.
Republicans are prepared for a worst-case scenario, particularly in the Senate, where Democrats need to pick up four seats to flip the chamber if Clinton wins the White House.
The best hope is that Republicans can stem their losses with candidates who heeded early warnings not to hitch their prospects to Trump’s volatile presidential campaign.
Senators like Rob Portman in Ohio and Chuck Grassley in Iowa have been campaigning like big-city mayors, focused on local issues. They and others, including Marco Rubio in Florida and John McCain in Arizona, have built field operations separate from Trump’s and appear poised to keep their seats.
But senators who have toggled between support and distance from Trump are among those now seriously in jeopardy.
Sen. Pat Toomey in Pennsylvania declined to take a definitive stance on Trump. New Hampshire Sen. Kelly Ayotte is struggling to shore up her base after abandoning Trump over his lewd comments. Both are being hit with ads bolstering Democratic challengers Katie McGinty in Pennsylvania and New Hampshire Gov. Maggie Hassan.
At the same time, Democrats are shifting resources to expand the battleground to Republican terrain. Money is flowing to Missouri, where Republican Sen. Roy Blunt faces Democrat Jason Kander, and North Carolina, where Republican Sen. Richard Burr is trailing Deborah Ross, a former American Civil Liberties Union executive.
Long-struggling Sens. Mark Kirk, R-Ill., and Ron Johnson, R-Wis., seemed poised for defeat.
“Overall, it’s a miracle we’re even in this thing right now,” said one GOP Senate strategist. “How could it get worse? But it always does.”
Republicans say the problems for candidates in Congress go beyond Trump’s behavior to the rapidly deteriorating political climate.
Many donors and voters tend to view the presidential campaign as finished now that public polling puts Clinton so far ahead of Trump, they warn, and that is depressing fundraising and may dampen turnout.
House Republicans hope they are on sturdier ground because their 30-seat margin gives them one of the biggest majorities in years. Also, few seats are competitive thanks to GOP-led gerrymandering.
But Rob Simms, executive director of the National Republican Congressional Committee, nevertheless warns of the “increasingly precarious” situation as leaders urged lawmakers to pony up funds for embattled colleagues.
House Speaker Paul Ryan, who publicly announced this month he would no longer campaign for Trump, has been stumping across the country to save his majority.
Picking up 30 seats to flip the House remains a “tall order” as one Democratic operative put it, but Rep. Nancy Pelosi, the minority leader, expects a diminished GOP, suggesting whichever party wins control will have a “single digit” majority. “We’re in good shape,” she said.
For many Republicans, the situation now is reminiscent of years ago, after the party put forward candidates and tea party favorites who did well in GOP primaries but faltered when facing a broader audience in the general election.
Republicans took the Senate majority in 2014, partly by blocking such candidates. They employed the same strategy this year.
Now with Trump, a controversial candidate is at the top of the ticket, again threatening their majority.
“You don’t need this superstar quarterback, but you don’t want someone who doesn’t know the playbook, who throws the other players under the bus,” said one GOP operative. “It doesn’t mean we can’t prevail. It just means it’s that much harder.”