Sun Sentinel Palm Beach Edition
Who has the edge between the Dolphins and Bills?
Stopping McCoy and Taylor on the ground paramount for Miami
When Dolphins run
RB Jay Ajayi (1,007 rushing yards, 4.8 yards per carry) pounded the Buffalo Bills for a career-best 214 yards when the teams met in October. But in the past six games Ajayi’s rushed for only 361 yards for an average of 3.5 per carry. And the offensive line has been struggling to open the type of holes it did early in the Dolphins’ six-game winning streak. Buffalo is 27th in run defense (124.4 yards allowed per game) while the Dolphins are 16th at 106.3 rushing yards per game. If the Bills limit Ajayi, a Pro Bowl alternate, to fewer than 80 yards and the team to fewer than 100 yards it’s bad news for the Dolphins.
Edge: Bills
When Bills run
Pro Bowl RB LeSean McCoy (1,129 yards rushing, 5.5 yards per carry) had a hamstring injury and was limited to 11 yards on eight carries in October. But he’s healthy now and poses a huge threat. It should be noted that the Dolphins have only allowed three 100-yard rushers this season — New England’s LeGarrette Blount, Tennessee’s DeMarco Murray and San Francisco’s Colin Kaepernick. But they’re 1-2 in those games. And the Dolphins have allowed 11 of their 14 opponents to rush for more than 100 yards as a team. Pro Bowl DT Ndamukong Suh must spearhead a tough-minded approach, and the linebackers must be sure tacklers.
Edge: Bills
When Dolphins pass
QB Matt Moore had a career-best four touchdown passes and a 126.2 passer rating in his last outing, his first start since the 2011 season. WRs Jarvis Landry and Kenny Stills have both made big plays with Moore at the helm. And TE Dion Sims had two touchdowns last week. Buffalo is No. 3 in the league in sacks with 38. Pro Bowl LB Lorenzo Alexander has 11.5 sacks. Pass protection will be a major factor. The Bills are No. 8 in pass defense. CB Stephon Gilmore has five interceptions. Accuracy, an area where Moore did fairly well last week against the New York Jets, will be a big thing to watch.
Edge: Dolphins
When Bills pass
QB Tyrod Taylor (14 TDs, six INTs, 86.8 passer rating, 27th in NFL) has been up and down this season but still poses a threat as a runner, as he has 520 yards rushing. WR Sammy Watkins is back after missing the teams’ October meeting. His size and speed will create a major headache. TE Charles Clay (46 receptions, 447 yards, two TDs) has been somewhat of a disappointment despite decent numbers. Dolphins Pro Bowl DE Cameron Wake (10.5 sacks) has been great in the second half of the season, and Suh (5.0 sacks) and DE Andre Branch (5.5 sacks) could make an impact. The Dolphins could be vulnerable underneath in the passing game but have been reasonably good on the edges.
Edge: Dolphins
Special teams
Dolphins K Andrew Franks (14 of 18 FGs, 35 of 36 XPs) has been inconsistent all season. Buffalo K Dan Carpenter (17 of 21 FGs, 35 of 40 XPs) has been worse. Both could be important in what is expected to be a close game. Dolphins P Matt Darr (44.7 yards per punt) is 21st in the NFL, but Bills P Colton Schmidt (42.5 yards per punt) is last. Dolphins KOR Jakeem Grant (22.3 yards per return) is a threat because of his shifty moves and acceleration. Bills KOR Brandon Tate (22.4 yards per return) is also a threat. The key might be Miami’s ability to block kicks, which they’ve done the past two games, getting points off both on returns by S Walt Aikens.
Edge: Dolphins
Intangibles
It’s almost a must-win game for Miami, which can clinch its first playoff berth since 2008 with a victory over Buffalo and a Denver loss to Kansas City on Sunday, or by winning its final two games against Buffalo and New England . ... The Dolphins are 0-4 at Buffalo since 2012 . ... Moore won at Buffalo in 2011 with the Dolphins . ... The Dolphins have had problems with agile quarterbacks such as Marcus Mariota (Tennessee) and Kaepernick (San Francisco) this season . ...
The weather forecast has temperatures in the mid-30s with a slight chance of rain or snow. Edge: Bills Prediction: Bills 20, Dolphins 17