New migrant wave expected

Tens of thousands likely to make dangerous trip from Libya to Europe this year in attempt to flee war-torn country.

VALLETTA, Malta — Tens of thousands of people seeking better lives are expected to trek across deserts and board unseaworthy boats in war-torn Libya this year in a desperate effort to reach European shores by way of Italy.

More than 181,000 people, most so-called “economic migrants” with little chance of being allowed to stay in Europe, attempted to cross the central Mediterranean last year from Libya, Africa’s nearest stretch of coast to Italy. About 4,500 died or disappeared.

Hundreds already have taken to the sea this month, braving the winter weather. In the latest reminder of the journey’s perils, more than 100 people were missing off Libya’s coast over the weekend after a migrant boat sunk.

Some European leaders are warning of a fresh migration crisis when sea waters warm again and more people choose to put their lives in the hands of smugglers.

“Come next spring, the number of people crossing over the Mediterranean will reach record levels,” predicted Malta Prime Minister Joseph Muscat, whose country holds the European Union’s presidency.

The 28-nation EU already has a controversial deal to stem the flow of migrants from Turkey, which has agreed to try to stop the number of migrants leaving the country and to take back thousands more. In exchange, Turkey is supposed to receive billions of euros, visa-free travel for its citizens, and fast-tracked EU membership talks.

Now, the EU wants to adapt this outsourcing pact to the African nations that migrants are leaving or are jumping off from to reach Europe, despite criticism that the agreement sends asylum-seekers back to countries that could be unsafe for them.

Niger, Nigeria, Ethiopia, Mauritania, Mali and Chad are all on the EU’s radar. The bloc’s arrangement with Turkey has shown that the best way of stemming migrant flows is to stop people taking to the sea. Libya and Egypt are the main migrant departure points.

Muscat wants to build on a deal Italy is trying to reach with Libya by adding EU funds and other support. He also thinks the EU’s anti-smuggler naval mission should be extended into Libyan territorial waters.

The EU has been unable to secure United Nations backing for such a move, and Libya has no central authority.

“The reality of Libya right now is that there is no unified government controlling all parts of the country and no end of groups willing to upend things if there is an advantage in it for them,” said Carlo Binda, a Libya expert with Binda Consulting International.

Egypt appears a more viable option. Many people have set out for Europe from Egypt in recent months, mainly migrants from the Horn of Africa trying to avoid dangerous Libya and increasingly Egyptians themselves, according to EU border agency Frontex.

“Egypt is the country with which one could come to some sort of agreement,” Maltese Foreign Minister George Vella said. “There is stability to a certain extent, and they are interested because even they themselves have got their own problem with migration.”