Trudeau faces the ‘uncertainty’ of Trump

OTTAWA — For Justin Trudeau, life is about to get a lot more complicated.

After Friday’s inauguration of Donald Trump as U.S. president, the Canadian prime minister will be entering uncharted territory with Canada’s most important economic, defense and political partner. Gone will be his brief, 15-month “bromance” with Barack Obama, in which the two like-minded leaders bonded over issues such as free trade, climate change and human rights.

Facing the unpredictability of a Trump presidency and its possible negative impact on Canada, particularly when it comes to economic ties, Trudeau has acted quickly. He has sent his two most trusted aides to the United States for talks with Trump’s closest advisers and shaken up his cabinet, naming Chrystia Freeland, a Harvard-educated former journalist with extensive links in the United States, as his foreign minister.

“The stakes are high for Canada,” Roland Paris, a former senior foreign policy adviser to Trudeau and a professor at the University of Ottawa’s Graduate School of Public and International Affairs, said in an interview. “Three-quarters of our manufacturing exports go the U.S., and that accounts for one-fifth of our GDP. Given Mr. Trump’s comments on trade issues in relation to other countries, red lights are flashing in corporate and government offices across this country.”

“It’s the uncertainty that everybody is worried about,” said Michael Kergin, a former Canadian ambassador to Washington.

The future of the North American Free Trade Agreement is of particular concern, even if Trump has been targeting Mexico and saying nothing publicly about Canada. “He’s certainly got Mexico in his sights, but it’s a three-way agreement. What hits Mexico will inevitably have an impact on us,” Kergin said in an interview.

“If barriers are put up against Mexican imports into the United States, we would be affected because of supply chains,” said Gordon Ritchie, who helped Canada negotiate the Canada-U.S. Free Trade Agreement, the precursor to NAFTA.

In the North American auto industry, parts often go back and forth across borders seven or eight times before they end up in a final assembled vehicle. Other sensitive trade issues include Buy America rules, U.S. efforts to limit Canadian exports of softwood lumber for home building and Canada’s laws that effectively block U.S. farmers from sending dairy products and poultry to their country’s northern neighbor.

So far, Trump’s protectionist tweets have primarily been aimed at automakers who transfer production to Mexico from the United States, although in recent days he has also threatened German carmakers with a 35-percent import tax if they don’t build more cars in the United States.

Canada has so far been spared.