Sun Sentinel Palm Beach Edition
Projecting the roster (Take 2)
Halfway through camp, few questions
JUPITER — At approximately the halfway point of spring training, the Miami Marlins’ Opening Day roster has about as many questions as it did to begin with — which is to say, very few.
We first predicted the 25 players the Marlins will carry when they break camp a week before pitchers and catchers reported last month. Since then, we’ve seen a few minor injuries and a couple of impressive exhibition campaigns, but none of those are likely to influence who plays for Miami on April 3 against the Nationals in Washington.
So to up the ante for Take 2 of projecting this relatively static roster, we’re getting specific with the batting lineup and rotation order. And, given that Jeff Locke’s return from bicep tendinitis is slower than initially expected, the Marlins could have a bullpen spot up for grabs, too.
Here’s where the Marlins stand during spring training’s fourth week (of seven):
The lineup (eight)
1. 2B Dee Gordon 2. 3B Martin Prado 3. CF Christian Yelich 4. RF Giancarlo Stanton 5. 1B Justin Bour 6. LF Marcell Ozuna 7. C J.T. Realmuto 8. SS Adeiny Hechavarria The lineup is straightforward enough based on manager Don Mattingly’s Grapefruit League lineups when all or most of the regulars are playing. Some of these parts are interchangeable — it’s easy to see the hotter of Prado and Realmuto hitting in the two-hole, for example — but for the most part you want Gordon first, Hechavarria last and Stanton cleanup.
It’s easy to see why the Marlins are so high on their offense. When you have Ozuna (the starting center fielder for last year’s NL All-Star team) and Realmuto (potentially one of the top offensive catchers in baseball) hitting in the bottom half of the lineup, that’s a good sign.
The bench (four)
IF Miguel Rojas IF/OF Derek Dietrich C A.J. Ellis OF Ichiro Suzuki All indications from the Marlins are that they will go with a short, four-man bench, which will allow them to squeeze an extra reliever onto the 25-man roster. These are those four. Ichiro is past his early camp nicks (resulting from an outfield collision with Brandon Barnes), and Ellis appears to be on his way back from the hamstring strain that kept him out of the World Baseball Classic.
If Ellis suffers a setback and has to open the season on the disabled list, Tomas Telis would fill in.
The rotation (five)
1. RHP Edinson Volquez 2. LHP Adam Conley 3. RHP Tom Koehler 4. LHP Wei-Yin Chen 5. RHP Dan Straily Mattingly has not named his Opening Day starter. From Day 1 of spring training, though, Volquez’s name is the first to come up when Mattingly is asked about the rotation and Opening Day. And, as Mattingly put it as recently as Monday, the Marlins like Volquez as “a guy who has been there” — having pitched in a wildcard game (one time), the World Series (two times) and Opening Day (four times).
We slotted Conley in at No. 2 because he had the best 2016 (injury aside) of all of these starters and to set up a righty-lefty pattern. For that same reason, Koehler gets the nod ahead of Chen.
Straily opened spring training in a purported competition with Locke, Jose Urena and Justin Nicolino for the last spot in the rotation, but there is no reason to think anybody will take that job from him.
The bullpen (eight)
RHP A.J. Ramos RHP Brad Ziegler RHP Kyle Barraclough RHP Junichi Tazawa RHP David Phelps RHP Dustin McGowan RHP Jose Urena RHP Nick Wittgren Here we have the only personnel change in our roster projection from a month ago: Wittgren over the left-handed Locke. Locke, who is battling bicep tendinitis, was more or less shut down for two weeks and has felt good since beginning a throwing program Saturday.
It remains possible he is fully healthy in time for Opening Day, but the Marlins are deep enough relievers-wise to be careful with him. Starting the season on the DL — and in turn going on a rehab assignment — could also benefit Locke in terms of getting a few reps out of the bullpen, where he has very little experience.
We penciled in Wittgren as a Locke replacement, but it would likely be a tossup between him and righty Brian Ellington. Ellington had slightly better numbers in 2016, but Wittgren spent more time with the big league team.