Sun Sentinel Palm Beach Edition
On tournament bubble, FAU focuses on final 10 games
BOCA RATON — After sweeping rival Florida International over the weekend, Florida Atlantic’s baseball team enters a crucial season-ending stretch that will decide its fate.
The Owls (29-13-1, 15-6 Conference USA) are in second place in the conference but still enter their final 10 games squarely on the NCAA Tournament bubble. FAU has made the tournament each of the past two years and three of the past four.
Both Baseball America and Warren Nolan left FAU out of their projected 64-team tournament fields last week. Nolan put four Conference USA schools in his field, but not the Owls.
Baseball America included the Owls in its field on April 19, but dropped them after FAU lost four straight games, including its first series of the season against UTSA. The Owls rebounded to win the next five games, tying their longest winning streak of the season.
“The whole season, it’s either our offense was doing good or our pitching was doing good,” outfielder David Miranda said. “What a great time for all of us to be doing great at the same time.”
FAU beat Florida Gulf Coast on Tuesday and used walk-off victories on Friday and Saturday to defeat the Golden Panthers. FAU left-hander Jake Miednik threw eight innings of onerun ball Sunday to lead the Owls to a 10-1 win over FIU (26-20, 10-11).
FAU’s Ratings Percentage Index, a metric that ranks teams based on their record and strength of schedule, jumped to No. 59 after Sunday’s victory, according to Nolan. The Owls have moved up 24 spots in the past week. None of the top 100 teams moved more than FAU.
“This weekend was huge, just kind of meshing as a team in all aspects,” outfielder Jared Shouppe said. “It’s been probably the best we’ve played all year combined. It’s been awesome.”
But FAU’s strength of schedule lags (106th in the country), and it has only played seven games against teams with a top-50 RPI. That will change in the next three weeks, when FAU plays seven more games against such teams.
The Owls visit conference leader Southern Miss next weekend. The Golden Eagles (34-12, 16-5) are ranked in five of the six major polls and have lost just two series all season. With an RPI of 21, Southern Miss will be the highest rated team the Owls play this year.
After a series at conference cellar-dweller Western Kentucky, FAU closes its season with games against No. 33 Central Florida (May 16) and No. 38 Old Dominion (May 18-20).
“I think we’re a regional team, but the way they calculate stuff, after [Sunday], our RPI might be in the 50s,” FAU coach John McCormack said. “It’s still a little iffy. We got to get into the 40s, finish in the top three [in Conference USA], then I think we’ve got a fighting chance.”
To improve their RPI and secure an at-large bid, the Owls will likely have to win either the Southern Miss or Old Dominion series.
The Owls also can secure a tournament bid by winning the Conference USA Tournament in Biloxi, Miss., from May 24-28. The conference could garner between two and four bids to the NCAA tournament. Southern Miss and Old Dominion seem fairly safe, while Charlotte and Louisiana Tech are also contenders.
“These last 10 games, we control our own destiny because we have Southern Miss and Old Dominion,” McCormack said. “So we take care of our own business and we’ll be fine.”
This season seemed to align well for the Owls. Perennial conference power Rice is having a down year. Local rival Miami is in danger of missing the tournament for the first time since 1972 and still went 3-0 against FAU.
But FAU hasn’t notched many marquee wins — a February win over Indiana is its best victory. The season’s last three weeks give it a chance to.
“Southern Miss does not seem to slow down,” McCormack said. “It’s a juggernaut. Old Dominion’s scoring about 15 runs a game the last two weeks. So it is really good that we got the sweep here [against FIU]. … On the road, if we can do some damage, that will really help. Really, really help.”