Sun Sentinel Palm Beach Edition
Heat’s draft scenarios abound
The NBA offseason is like a flowchart, with a logical progression dependent on a clearly delineated order.
Unlike the NFL, with its arguably more commonsensical approach of free agency, draft and then more free agency, the NBA’s offseason flows from Point A to Point B and onward, with no looking back.
For the Miami Heat, the first part of the process arrived with a thud, the inability to secure a playoff berth despite a frantic charge back from 11-30 at midseason to an 41-41 finish, a nasty tiebreaker with the Chicago Bulls getting in the way.
But that also put the Heat on the clock for what will transpire Tuesday at 8:30 p.m. in New York, at the draft lottery. Only after that drawing will the Heat know their place in the June 22 NBA draft, which arrives at a time when even feelers to outside free agents is prohibited.
And then on July 1, yet another freeagency frenzy will begin, which will have the Heat looking both inward (James Johnson, Dion Waiters, Willie Reed, Wayne Babbitt and, potentially Wayne Ellington) as well as outward (a class that will include Steph Curry, Kyle Lowry, Serge Ibaka, Jeff Teague, J.J. Redick, Jrue Holiday and could also include Kevin Durant, Paul Millsap, Gordon Hayward, Blake Griffin, Chris Paul, Danilo Gallinari and Dwyane Wade, among others).
So how do the Heat proceed through their annual algorithm? Here’s one perspective.
If the Heat move up in
Tuesday’s lottery: The Heat have a 1.8 percent chance of moving up from their No. 14 lottery seed, with a 0.5 percent chance of landing the No. 1 pick, 0.6 percent chance of No. 2 and 0.7 percent at No. 3.
If the Heat wind up at No. 1, the chalk pick is Washington point guard Markelle Fultz, with UCLA point guard Lonzo Ball setting up at No. 2 and Kansas forward Josh Jackson at No. 3.
For all of Pat Riley’s win-now bravado, such picks often define the futures of franchises, Michael Beasley’s history with the Heat notwithstanding. At either No. 1 of No. 2, you go with Fultz or Ball and then let the Goran Dragic ramifications play out.
No. 3, though, is where a trade might make sense, if a Jimmy Butler or Paul George were to be dangled.
If the Heat land at No.
14: While there should be tempting rotation options at No. 14, both from an in-the-moment perspective (Justin Jackson, Ivan Rabb, John Collins, T.J. Leaf ) to more forwardthinking gambits (Terrance Ferguson, Hamidou Diallo or injury questions OG Anunoby, Harry Giles), this is where trading down has to be considered.
Based on incumbent rotation permutations (Hassan Whiteside, James Johnson, Justise Winslow, Waiters, Dragic, Tyler Johnson, Josh Richardson, Rodney McGruder plus other potential returning players), the Heat do not need a difference-maker at No. 14 (which rarely is the outcome at that slot, anyway).
With first-round picks due to the Phoenix Suns in 2018 and ‘21 for Dragic, and without a second-round pick until 2022, this is when stepping back a few, or even several, slots could make sense. That would provide the opportunity to lock in a first-round selection to a favorable rookiescale deal while also replenishing the draft trove.
At the NBA draft: By rule, the Heat have to exercise a pick because of their 2018 selection going to the Suns unless it is among the first seven (teams are not allowed to trade successive future picks).
That could make June 22 a night when the player in a Heat hat is not the Heat’s player, just as Shabazz Napier’s 2014 draft-night photos feature him in Hornets gear.
This will be a night the Heat will need to be as nimble as any of their previous drafts.
The Boston Celtics were willing to trade six picks, including four first-rounders, for the right to select Winslow in 2014.
This could be the rare time when quantity could eclipse quality for the Heat. From draft to start of free agency: From a legacy perspective, all eyes will be on Wade’s Chicago Bulls early-termination option prior to the July 1 start of free agency.
For the Heat, Josh McRoberts has a June 29 deadline for his $6 million player option for next season, with Waiters and Reed having that deadline for their player options. In addition, Richardson’s 2017-18 salary becomes fully guaranteed on June 30, with Okaro White’s 2017-18 salary becoming fully guaranteed on July 1.
The perspective here: McRoberts opts in, Waiters and Reed opt out, the Heat guarantee Richardson’s $1.8 million and reach an accommodation with White to defer his guarantee.
Free agency: A story for another day, with these next five weeks setting up what follows, the NBA missing out on the NFL’s common sense approach of allowing free agency to wrap around the draft.