Active storm season ahead

NOAA says warmer seas and weak El Nino may mean a wild 2017; but how accurate are they?

Brace yourself for a wet and worry-filled summer. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration is predicting an above-normal 2017 hurricane season with five to nine hurricanes (minimum 74 mph winds), of which two to four will be Category 3 or stronger (minimum 111 mph winds). The forecast calls for a total of 11 to 17 tropical systems (minimum 39 mph winds).

The Atlantic hurricane season begins June 1 and runs until Nov. 30.

The weakness or absence of storm-suppressing El Nino climate conditions, above-normal ocean surface temperatures and average or weaker vertical wind shear across the Caribbean and Atlantic coast indicate it will be an active hurricane season, said Ben Friedman, acting NOAA admin-

istrator.

Forecasters say there’s a 45 percent chance of an above-normal hurricane season and only a 20 percent chance it will be below average.

By contrast, AccuWeather forecasters anticipate 10 named storms, with five becoming hurricanes and three storms of Category 3 or higher. They say that three named storms will make landfall in the U.S.

The outlook from Colorado State University hurricane researchers Philip J. Klotzbach and Michael M. Bell predicts 11 named storms, four hurricanes and two major hurricanes.

April’s Tropical Storm Arlene was a rare preseason storm, but it was also an indication of an active season ahead, Friedman said Thursday during a news conference at the NOAA Center for Weather and Climate Prediction in College Park, Md.

“Our season outlook predicts a range of storm activity in the entire six-month period across the Atlantic,” he said. “It does not predict when, where and how these storms might hit and if they will make landfall.”

Not since Hurricane Wilma slammed southern Florida in 2005 has a major storm of Category 3 or stronger made landfall in the U.S.

“Some may think that’s lucky,” he said. “But, in fact, tropical storms and hurricanes can be just as damaging and just as deadly.”

As an example, Friedman pointed to last year’s Hurricane Matthew, which caused storm surge flooding along the east coast from Florida to South Carolina.

“That caused $10 billion worth of damage and caused 34 deaths just in the United States,” he said. “In the Caribbean, another 550 or more people were killed by that storm, making it one of the deadliest on record.”

In the 25 years since Hurricane Andrew hit South Florida, forecasting accuracy has improved 65 percent, added Mary Erickson, National Weather Service deputy director.

A new weather satellite above the equator will move into an orbit over the Atlantic coast this summer to give forecasters a more detailed view of storm formation that might threaten the U.S. and Caribbean.

High-definition hurricane and lightning mapping programs will enhance forecast accuracy, she said.

“The primary goal of these improvements is to pinpoint where the biggest impacts are going to be,” she said.

NOAA is stressing personal preparations as key to minimizing the effect of the hurricane season.

“Just because it’s not a major hurricane doesn’t mean it’s not dangerous, doesn’t mean it’s not deadly, doesn’t mean that we don’t need to be prepared for it,” Friedman said.