Sun Sentinel Palm Beach Edition
GOP hopeful holds lead in House race
Georgia special election is closely watched for national impact
WASHINGTON — Early returns pointed to a close race and a long night in a Georgia congressional contest that has become a nationally-watched referendum on the Trump administration.
Based on only early voting results in the Atlanta suburbs district, the race remained too close to call as of early Tuesday evening.
Republican Karen Handel held a lead of 3percentage points over Democrat Jon Ossoff, but tens of thousands of votes remained to be counted.
The race to fill the seat vacated by Health and Human Services Secretary Tom Price has become the costliest House contest in history. The election will gauge the extent to which President Donald Trump is a political liability to fellow Republicans.
At stake is a seat Republicans have controlled for decades with little effort. But uneasiness with Trump among the electorate in this rapidly diversifying region and an energized base of Democrats who have activated a Bernie Sandersstyle fundraising operation have put the seat in play.
Among the most concerned about the outcome is Trump himself, who has been attacking Ossoff on Twitter since Monday. If the seat slips away from Republicans, Trump could start to lose his grip on GOP lawmakers in Congress.
A loss by Handel would push vulnerable GOP candidates in moderate districts to start distancing themselves from the president, which would further stymie his agenda. If the past is any guide, some Republican lawmakers would start to ponder retirement rather than face the kind of tumult that hit the party in what only a few months ago was friendly territory in Georgia.
Democrats also have a lot on the line. They are desperate for a win and, despite making every effort to keep the expectations of activists measured, failure to notch a victory after all the effort and money poured into this race would probably lead to a fresh round of soulsearching and a renewed debate over the path the party needs to take to start winning again. The Democrats’ ability to recruit toptier candidates for competitive — and even long-shot — congressional seats could suffer if Ossoff falls short.
Balloting Tuesday was complicated by torrential rain in the area, creating additional worries for the candidates as they scrambled to get out the vote. Strategists pondered how the weather might hurt one side or the other, but it was impossible to gauge in this off-season special election with unprecedented spending, in which all the usual turnout assumptions do not necessarily apply.
Democrats saw an opening in the region after Trump won the district by less than 2 percentage points. They are looking to their effort there to chart the path for Democrats nationwide to rebuild their power base in onetime GOP strongholds.
Now at the end of a campaign in which some $60 million will have been spent by the candidates and an assortment of ideological and political outside groups, Ossoff is arguably as well known as his Republican opponent. Handel is a former Georgia secretary of state and former executive at the Susan G. Komen for the Cure charity for breast cancer.
In April, the cash infusion for Ossoff, the eagerness of Democrats to consolidate around him and widespread voter anxiety in the district over Trump contributed to a surprisingly strong showing in an open primary. Ossoff won 48 percent of the vote, just 2 points shy of winning the race outright. Handel split the conservative vote with a few other Republicans, winning 18 percent.
Republicans in this district have since rallied around their nominee, making the race too close to call right up to Election Day.
Particularly invested in the race have been Californians. More Californians have contributed to it than donors from any other state, including Georgia. San Francisco has played front and center in campaign attacks.
Handel has repeatedly sought to make an issue out of Ossoff’s California money. The Democrat has raised nearly $5 for every $1 Handel has raised, pushing her to rely heavily on millions of dollars in spending from outside conservative groups, which have poured money into the race at more than double the rate of outside liberal groups.
Political strategists are loath to read too much into the results of special elections, which tend to get wrapped up in local issues that don’t necessarily apply to the broader electorate. But amid all the national attention this race is getting, whichever party loses will have a tough time downplaying the results.