Sun Sentinel Palm Beach Edition
Flow of migrants to Europe takes a dip
“It’s hard to say,” said Elizabeth Collett, the founding director of Migration Policy Institute Europe, a leading Brussels-based think tank on the issue. “We’re essentially looking at a month’s worth of a data — that doesn’t tell us much about a longer-term trend.”
The temporary decline in numbers, Collett added, could be a function of any number of factors, including a revamped Libyan coast guard, or changes in border operations in Niger, which has traditionally been a starting point for many migrants en route into Libya and then Europe.
She also said a network of militias on the ground in Libya — which has typically helped people smuggling in the past — appears to be working in conjunction with the country’s transitional government to keep migrants in place, a deal apparently backed by the Italian government. The Associated Press, citing Libyan militia and security officials, reported last week that the Libyan government has paid militias for these activities.
The Italian Interior Ministry reported last month that the country has seen a major decrease in the number of incoming migrants. About 4,000 migrants have arrived since mid-July, a figure that represents about 20 percent of the incoming crowds processed in the same period in 2016, 2015 and 2014.
“The scale of the (migrant) flows is dependent on the goodwill of small armed groups being willing to cooperate. This suggests we’re now reliant on small groups who see more profit in working with the transitional government and European governments,” Collett said. “But that also puts the emphasis on power dynamics in the region.”
Those dynamics, said Marco Funk, a migration specialist at the European Policy Center, a Brusselsbased think tank, are anything but set in stone, and could change on a moment’s notice.
“Those militias are looking for a benefit wherever they can find one,” he said. “I question how sustainable this dip is. I don’t expect it to be a long-term decline.”
The IOM report on Aug. 29 ultimately came a day after seven European and African leaders met in Paris on Monday to address the ongoing migration crisis, with European leaders urging their African counterparts to step up efforts to stem the flow.
Hosted by French President Emmanuel Macron, the respective leaders of Germany, Italy and Spain met with their counterparts in Chad, Niger and Libya — the nations that compose the most common migrant route into Europe.
In general, the Europeans pledged significant developmental aid for these African nations, which have often served as transit points for migrants fleeing poverty and persecution. By stimulating job growth on the other side of the Mediterranean, European leaders hope, fewer migrants will then feel compelled to make the journey.
Another goal of the Paris meeting was that tightened border controls along this African migration route — as well as “hot spots” or reception centers — be established along the way. The idea behind these centers is to process the asylum claims of migrants and refugees before they come to Europe, instead of after they arrive.
While early forms of some of these proposals have already been put in place, analysts doubt their continued efficacy, noting that determined migrants will continue to find ways into Europe along other routes.
Migration experts insisted the latest statistics do not indicate that a tenable solution has been found.
“In terms of policymaking, it means that European leaders can definitely not sit back and say the worst is over. Quite the opposite,” Funk said. “The root causes of this phenomenon are as present as ever, and the search for solutions should continue.”