Sun Sentinel Palm Beach Edition
Mammoth storm stalks Florida
Category 5 Irma not expected to weaken much after raking Caribbean isles
Hurricane Irma retained its stunning 185 mph strength Tuesday evening and held to a course that would take it across the northeastern Caribbean and possibly toward South Florida.
The “extremely dangerous core” of the Category 5 storm was to rake the islands of the northeastern Caribbean on Tuesday night and this morning, then threaten Puerto Rico tonight, according to the 8 p.m. advisory from the National Hurricane Center.
Although the storm is expected to weaken as it passes over the islands, it could remain a catastrophic Category 4 hurricane, with winds of 145 mph, by Saturday, when it could reach
South Florida.
South Florida remained squarely within the forecast of possible paths of the storm’s center, with possible scenarios ranging from a direct hit from a once-ina-generation storm to a day or so of bad weather as the hurricane passes south of the peninsula or takes a right turn up the East Coast before reaching land.
“The chance of direct impacts from Irma beginning later this week and this weekend from wind, storm surge and rainfall continues to increase in the Florida Keys and portions of the Florida Peninsula,” the hurricane center said.
Although the islands of the Caribbean, particularly the large ones, have acted as a natural shelter for South Florida, weakening many storms before they reach the state, this may not take place as much with Irma, the hurricane center said. Irma may experience only limited interaction with the islands, retaining Category 4 or 5 status as it enters extremely favorable conditions for a hurricane, with low wind shear — the highlevel crosswinds that can disrupt a hurricane’s circulation — moist air and warm water, providing lots of energy for the storm.
Authorities were taking the storm seriously, with county officials planning for evacuations and the opening of shelters.
Broward and Palm Beach county schools will be closed Thursday and Friday. The Florida Keys were ordered evacuated, with tourists told to start leaving by 7 a.m. today and residents told to start by 7 tonight.
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles from the center and tropical storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles.
“The hurricane force winds in Irma are wider than Florida,” tweeted Bryan Norcross, hurricane specialist for The Weather Channel. Norcross became famous as a Miami weather forecaster in Hurricane Andrew. “You won’t need a direct hit to get Wilma-type winds and storm surge on both coasts.”
The greatest danger to South Florida will be Friday night through Monday, with tropical-force winds possible by Friday night, according to the National Weather Service.
The storm could produce eight to 10 inches of rain this weekend, generating local flooding but nothing on the scale of the catastrophic floods experienced by Houston, according to the South Florida Water Management District, which handles flood control from Orlando to the Keys.
The district is lowering the water levels in drainage canals to accommodate the rain, said John Mitnik, chief engineer for the district.
Gov. Rick Scott activated the Florida Air and Army National Guard Tuesday morning, with 100 members called up immediately and all 7,000 members told to report for duty Friday morning.
Miami-Dade County announced that evacuations would begin today.
Broward County Mayor Barbara Sharief announced Tuesday morning that the county has begun planning for evacuations.
“We are working with counties to the north and the south to coordinate evacuations if necessary,” she said during a news conference in downtown Fort Lauderdale.
The county planned to open shelters and would do so earlier in the storm’s approach than it did last year with Hurricane Matthew, she said.
Palm Beach County officials plan to meet this morning to determine the timing of when to open shelters, cancel school and order evacuations, County Administrator Verdenia Baker said.
The storm’s strength places it in the top tier of Atlantic hurricanes, with wind speeds that exceed Hurricane Katrina and Hurricane Andrew at their maximum power, according to Phil Klotzbach, research scientist for Colorado State University’s Tropical Meteorology Project. The strongest Atlantic hurricane ever recorded, Hurricane Allen in 1980, had winds of 190 mph.
“Irma is an extremely impressive hurricane,” the National Hurricane Center said in its 11 a.m. discussion.
Any approaching hurricane raises concerns about the Herbert Hoover Dike, which holds back the waters of Lake Okeechobee and could be vulnerable to a breach if a strong hurricane hits.
The Army Corps of Engineers announced plans late Tuesday afternoon to release water from the lake into the Gulf and the Atlantic.
The water level in Lake Okeechobee is at 13.67 feet, within the level considered optimal by the Army Corps of Engineers, which manages the dike.
In an interview last week, Army Corps spokesman John Campbell estimated that a foot of rain falling into the basin north of the lake would cause the level to rise three to four feet as the water drains into it.
“We know that the dike has had performance issues when the lake is above 18 feet,” he said. “When it’s above 17 feet we are on a daily basis doing inspections.”
At 8 p.m. the hurricane was about 85 miles east of Antigua in the eastern Caribbean, moving west at 15 miles per hour.
“Since Irma is a large hurricane, users are reminded to not focus on the exact forecast track since tropical-storm and hurricaneforce winds and life-threatening storm surge extend far from the center,” the hurricane center said.
Hurricane warnings are in effect for a long list of islands, including Antigua, Barbuda, Anguilla, Montserrat, St. Kitts, St. Martin and Nevis. Emergency officials are warning that Irma could dump up to 10 inches of rain, unleash landslides and dangerous flash floods and generate waves of up to 23 feet as the storm draws closer.
On social media, posts showed long lines of people waiting to fill propane tanks and get gas, along with long lines at hardware stores.
Officials continue to urge people in the path of the hurricane to get prepared.
“This hurricane has the potential to be a major event for the East Coast. It also has the potential to significantly strain FEMA and other governmental resources occurring so quickly on the heels of Harvey,” Evan Myers, chief operating officer of AccuWeather, said in a statement.