Three Republicans aim for Wasserman Schultz defeat

Their success would be first after 13 challenges

They keep trying, and failing — 13 times, so far. But three Republicans are lining up for another attempt, convinced they’ve figured out the magic formula that finally will turn their party’s dream into reality, resulting in the ouster of Democratic Congresswoman Debbie Wasserman Schultz.

Joe Kaufman, Carlos Reyes and Carla Spalding are running for their party’s nomination to challenge Wasserman Schultz next year in the Broward/Miami-Dade County 23rd Congressional District.

Each says there’s a path to victory, but political strategists said their prospects aren’t good.

“There is absolutely no way a Republican can win in Congressional District 23 as currently constituted,” said Sean Phillippi, a Democratic strategist. “It’s a fool’s errand for them even to try.”

Sean Foreman, a political scientist at Barry University, was less

dramatic than Phillippi in the way he assesses the race, but his overall analysis is similar. “That’s a tough nut for Republicans to crack,” he said.

Even Richard DeNapoli, the state Republican committeeman for Broward and a former county Republican chairman, said it’s a “very tough” district for a candidate from his party.

Partisan leanings

Phillippi, Foreman and DeNapoli all point to the makeup of district as one of the biggest challenges for a Republican candidate. “Obviously the numbers are what the numbers are,” DeNapoli said.

The 23rd Congressional District doesn’t even make the lists of races to watch from the nonpartisan, independent analysts at Inside Elections, Sabato’s Crystal Ball at the University of Virginia and the Cook Political Report — because it’s so Democratic the outcome isn’t in doubt.

The party breakdown is 45 percent Democratic, 30 percent are independent/no party affiliation voters or members of third parties, and 25 percent are Republicans.

Democratic presidential candidate Hillary Clinton won the district 61.4 percent to 35.6 percent. Statewide, President Donald Trump won 49 percent to 47.8 percent for Clinton.

In addition, the party in power often doesn’t do well in midterm elections and Trump’s favorability rating is low. The Trump factor puts candidates Kaufman, Reyes and Spalding in a delicate position, because they have to appeal to Republican primary voters to get the nomination.

“He is my president and I think we should support the policies that are going to be beneficial for the American people,” Spalding said.

Kaufman said that “overall I think he’s done a very good job.” But, he said, he doesn’t know if Trump will help or hurt the Republican nominee in November 2018.

Reyes said he, too, isn’t sure what effect Trump will have. “The crystal ball is not exactly my strong suit. I think, if President Trump makes good policy, he’ll work in any district.”

Still, Republicans are heartened by what they hear from their fellow party members — a dislike for Wasserman Schultz, a liberal former chairwoman of the Democratic National Committee. She resigned under fire from that job in 2016. And they like that she’s facing a challenge in the Democratic primary from Tim Canova, who ran in 2016 and is running again in 2018.

“We all know she is in deep trouble,” Spalding said.

Their strategic thinking assumes that even if Wasserman Schultz prevails in her primary, she’d be softened up from the primary battle. That didn’t happen in 2016, when Canova was well funded and ran a strong race.

Money issues

Another big challenge is money for the primary and general elections.

The candidates’ financial picture is mixed.

Reyes, who announced his candidacy Aug. 14, raised $101,000 in seven weeks — far more in a much shorter time than his competitors. He spent more than half on startup expenses, and he had $43,200 in cash on Sept. 30. He said his fundraising goal for the entire campaign, through next November, is $5 million.

Spalding raised $8,300 in the July, August and September, and had $2,300 in cash and $9,300 in debts as of Sept. 30.

She said she hopes to raise $1 million to $1.5 million for the primary; her general election goal depends on whether Wasserman Schultz or Canova wins the Democratic primary.

Kaufman raised $735 in the third quarter. But he also has a war chest from previous times he’s run, and had about $389,000 in cash in his campaign account — and $90,000 of debt — on Sept. 30. He said he didn’t know how much he’d need to raise for 2018.

On the Democratic side, Wasserman Schultz raised $262,000 in the third quarter and had $308,000 in the bank on Sept. 30.

Canova took in $50,400 in July, August and September, and had $10,300 in the bank at the end of the quarter. His campaign also had $30,000 in outstanding debt.

Phillippi said he’s happy to have Republicans raise and spend money in the 23rd District, because it means cash will be diverted from races where it might make a difference: “Any money that they spend in that district is a complete and total waste.”

DeNapoli said it’s possible the national Republicans could give some attention to the Wasserman Schultz district, but that would likely come only to the candidate who raises a substantial sum without help — enough to prove credibility as a viable candidate

Still, the top Republican priorities in South Florida will be defending two incumbents, U.S. Rep. Carlos Curbelo in Miami-Dade County and U.S. Rep. Brian Mast in northern Palm Beach, Martin and St. Lucie counties, along with the seat being vacated by U.S. Rep. Ileana Ros-Lehtinen in Miami-Dade County.

Candidates’ strategy

Before they get to the question of how best to challenge the Democratic nominee, Kaufman, Reyes or Spalding has to win over Republican voters.

Of the three, only Reyes lives in the district, which he said gives him an edge. “I can tell you where Miramar ends and Pembroke Pines begins” and said he’s the candidate who is electable.

Kaufman is registered to vote in Tamarac, while Spalding is registered to vote in Wellington. Both note that residency isn’t required.

Spalding said she has a part-time residence in Broward and will move to the county full-time by the end of the year.

She said she’s running in the 23rd District because “we need Republicans throughout the state of Florida. This particular district has had a person with no integrity, has many scandals disgracing the district, and it’s time we get somebody with integrity like myself to bring peace, love, jobs and hope to this district.”

Kaufman and Spalding have both unsuccessfully run for Congress before. Spalding initially ran as a Republican in 2016 for open congressional seat that covers northern Palm Beach, Martin and St. Lucie counties, then switched to run as a no party affiliation candidate. She received 3 percent of the vote.

Kaufman said he isn’t sure he lost the 2016 election to Wasserman Schultz. He claims there was massive voter fraud in the district, and said he might really have won. He doesn’t offer proof, and the results of the 2016 Wasserman Schultz victory were certified by allRepublican state Election Canvassing Board, led by Gov. Rick Scott and Attorney General Pam Bondi.

“I think I was robbed in the last election. On paper it shows I had 41 percent of the vote. But I believe it was a lot more than that. I have reason to believe I may have won the last election,” Kaufman said. He said state Republican officials didn’t investigate because “it’s very hard to go back on an election once it’s taken place.”

Foreman said he hasn’t heard any evidence of voter fraud.

Kaufman thinks his experience as a repeat candidate is an advantage. “Every time I run, and this is going to be the fourth time I’ve run for this seat, every time I run I’ve done better and better.”