Growth means more Florida clout in Congress, presidential races

The constant flow of new residents to Florida will make the Sunshine State a big winner in coming years, as political power shifts among states across the country.

The latest estimate, based on Census Bureau data released last month, comes from the consulting firm Election Data Services in Virginia. With the state’s population increasing by an average of 898 people a day from July 2016 to July 2017, political influence follows.

Florida is in line to pick up two new congressional districts, increasing its clout. The new total: 29 seats in the 435-member House of Representatives.

The state will become even more important in presidential elections. Florida would control 31 of the 270 electoral votes needed to win the presidency, up from the current 29.

“It’s great,” said Pamela Goodman of Palm Beach Gardens, president of the League of Women Voters of Florida. “The louder the voice, the stronger the voice that we have nationally, the better.”

The only bigger winner than Florida is the mega state of Texas, projected to land three more congressional districts and three more electoral votes. The losers span the northeast and Midwest, where populations are stalled or declining. Illinois could lose three seats.

Right now, the change is a projection, but highly reliable, said Sean Foreman, a political scientist at Barry University. And the shift isn’t immediate.

First comes the 2020 Census, which produces official numbers used for reapportionment, the oncea-decade dividing of House seats

among the 50 states. Then, the Florida Legislature draws congressional district boundaries for the 2022 election. Finally, in the 2024 presidential election, Florida awards all its electoral votes to the winner of the statewide vote.

Presidential elections

Controlling more than 10 percent of the electoral votes needed to win the presidency, Floridians would continue to get lots of visits from presidential candidates and campaign advertising far into the future.

“Florida, with two more electoral votes, will certainly continue to be the largest swing state and the biggest prize in the presidential election,” Foreman said.

No. 1 California is solidly Democratic and No. 2 Texas is solidly Republican, although some analysts predict the growing Hispanic population there could ultimately make it a more competitive state. No. 3 Florida is called a swing state because it is so closely divided that elections can be decided by a shift of just 1 or 2 percent of the vote.

Congressional presence

A larger congressional delegation could mean more clout for Florida.

Foreman and Larry Casey, a Republican strategist from Palm Beach Gardens who has managed congressional campaigns and run congressional offices, said there are two potential effects: greater potential for a Floridian to move up in the congressional leadership and to win results for home-state priorities such as securing money for Lake Okeechobee or Everglades restoration.

Hurricane Maria

The migration caused by Hurricane Maria, which struck Puerto Rico in September, is guaranteed to have a political impact on Florida. The storm was too recent to show up in the Census Bureau population estimates used for the analysis by Kimball Brace, president of Election Data Services, but the Florida Department of Emergency Management said this week that more than 295,000 people from Puerto Rico have arrived via three Florida airports since Oct. 3.

“The real issue is how much of an influx and will they stay there for the next three years,” Brace said. The Census will measure population as of April 1, 2020.

Even if more than 200,000 Puerto Ricans remain in Florida, Brace and Foreman said it’s unlikely to increase the number of seats the state would gain. Securing a third seat would require more than 500,000 additional Floridians, Brace said.

Even if there aren’t enough new Puerto Rican residents of Florida to secure a third additional seat, significant effects are likely. Many Puerto Ricans are settling in Central Florida, increasing the chances that the central part of the state gets one of the new seats and that it could elect a Democratic representative.

Political maneuvering

After the Census, the congressional districts are apportioned among the states, and the Florida Legislature decides where the boundaries should lie for each district allocated to the state.

Politicians want to give themselves districts that are easy to win, and political parties want districts that will give them as many victories as possible.

Goodman said political machinations would be minimized by the “fair districts” amendments voters added to the Florida Constitution in 2010. The new rules require districts be as compact as possible, that they respect existing geographic community boundaries as much as possible and that they not be drawn to favor political parties or incumbents. Even with the fair districts rules, Geller said, the party in power would still try to draw lines favorable to its candidates.

Steve Geller, a Broward County commissioner and former Democratic leader in the Florida Senate, said the drawing of congressional district boundaries “turns people that are normally close friends and neighbors into bitter enemies.”

He was in the state House during the 1992 redistricting and in 2002 was in charge of drawing proposed district maps for Senate Democrats.

Casey said incumbent members of Congress could find themselves running in territory they aren’t familiar with, or face opposition from the very state legislators responsible for coming up with the boundaries of the new congressional districts.

It will end the political careers of some, he said, and propel others to higher office.

A map from Dec. 20 shows the number of congressional seats each state is expected to gain and lose after the 2020 Census. Florida is estimated to gain two seats.