Scott-Nelson battle key to Senate control

TALLAHASSEE — Gov. Rick Scott is expected to jump into the U.S. Senate race Monday, challenging incumbent Bill Nelson in what could become one of the most expensive congressional races in history and help decide which party controls the chamber.

Republicans hold just a one-seat advantage in the Senate, and although Democrats see a favorable political climate in November, they must defend Nelson and 22 other Senate incumbents, many of whom are in states President Donald Trump won. And a well-financed challenge from Scott, even if he doesn’t win, will draw resources from Democrats that could be used in other races.

“There’s not going to be any candidate that’s better prepared than Rick Scott,” said GOP political consultant Brian Burgess, a former Scott spokesman. “He has been planning this

for a long time, he’s got a game plan, and he knows what he has to do.”

Scott, 65, a multimillionaire former hospital executive, was a political newcomer in 2010 when he pumped $60.4 million of his own money into his campaign to upset the GOP establishment and rode a tea party wave to become governor. He’s seen approval ratings increase in recent months, in part by taking moderate positions on immigration and gun laws, and jetting across the state to reassure residents during a hectic hurricane season.

He also can raise vast sums and has already raked in $1.2 million for New Republican, a political committee, as of the start of 2018.

For his part, Nelson, 75, has raised $10 million and spent more than $3 million as of the start of the year. He’s likely to raise and spend millions more in the months ahead but is unlikely to match Scott’s ability to raise cash or the amount of spending by the GOP and outside groups on Scott’s behalf.

In Nelson’s first race for Senate in 2000, a total of $19.3 million was spent by all candidates and outside groups. In 2016, the race for Republican Sen. Marco Rubio’s seat, which he held, drew $110.5 million in spending by all parties, the fourth-most of the cycle, according to the Center for Responsive Politics, a group that tracks campaign spending.

In the Nelson-Scott contest this year, “there will probably be a record amount of money spent,” said veteran GOP lobbyist Mac Stipanovich.

At an Orlando event Wednesday, Nelson didn’t have much to say about Scott as an opponent, but he vowed to run the campaign “like there’s no tomorrow.”

“When I have an opponent, I assume that they’re the toughest opponent,” he said. When asked about the potential of a challenge from a well-funded Scott, he added, “that means I’ll run double time like there’s no tomorrow.”

Despite Scott’s potential cash advantage, he could face significant challenges. Energized Democrats aghast at Trump’s moves in office and insult-laden, tweet-first style have helped win a series of special elections throughout the country — including a state House district in Sarasota — in areas where Trump won handily in 2016.

“It’s just hard for me to see Rick Scott winning when the election is being defined in the terms of his guy, Donald Trump,” said Democratic consultant Steve Schale.

It won’t be hard for Democrats to tie Scott to Trump. Scott wrote an oped early in the primary campaign lauding Trump’s candidacy and has highlighted his friendship with Trump, saying it’s helped him secure federal funding for things such as repairs to the Herbert Hoover Dike at Lake Okeechobee.

Scott, who would not agree to be interviewed for this story, has backed away from Trump’s most controversial statements and positions or taken a diplomatic approach. On immigration, for example, he has said he’s against illegal immigration but urged Congress to extend the Deferred Action for Child Arrivals program, which Trump ended last month.

“He’s embraced Trump enough to reap the benefits that he can reap from him, and he can run as his own guy,” Burgess said. “He can run on his record.”

Meanwhile, the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee unveiled a website Thursday calling the governor “self-serving Scott” and attacking him for using a blind trust to hold his wealth. Scott had a net worth of $149.3 million at the end of 2016, according to his latest financial disclosure form. The trust was set up to shield him from charges of conflict of interest, but critics say it keeps the public from knowing the details of Scott’s finances.

“Rick Scott is notorious for his dishonesty and for prioritizing his own selfserving politics at the expense of Floridians,” DSCC spokesman David Bergstein said. “Deceitful, manipulative, and perpetually out for himself, Scott’s proven time and again why Floridians just don’t trust him to stand up for them.”

Scott supporters argue Nelson has beaten subpar GOP opponents in the past and will see a different challenge from Scott, who will promote his record as presiding over the economic turnaround in Florida.

Democrats counter that Scott’s election wins in 2010 and 2014 came during Republican wave years, and Scott only won by 70,000 votes or fewer each time. And his jobs push has missed much of the state, the DSCC website notes, with 36 of Florida’s 67 counties failing to regain the jobs lost in the Great Recession.

Yet for all the milliondollar ad buys and blistering attacks ahead, both sides believe the race will be tight.

“There’s a very, very small number of people who are up for grabs,” Schale said. “It’s just going to be really, really close.”

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